US stocks gave back Thursday's gains as the rotation stalled hard. $NVDA down 4.6%, $CRWD off 4.2%. $MRVL beat but guided margins low and punted on long-term outlook—market didn't like the caution.
Fed Chair Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole and basically said: inflation still matters more than jobs. Economy looks strong, AI capex is real, credit's easy, banks are lending, stocks are firm. Translation: no rush to cut rates. Maybe even hike again.
Money markets now pricing ~50% chance of a September hike, up from 36% before the speech. Barclays and SocGen both see hikes coming in September and December.
Dollar rallied. Treasury curve flattened. Gold dropped. Oil drifted lower on quiet Iran headlines.
Cyclicals got hit hardest as the hawkish tone sank in. If the Fed's not worried about growth, risk assets have less room to run.
Fed Chair Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole and basically said: inflation still matters more than jobs. Economy looks strong, AI capex is real, credit's easy, banks are lending, stocks are firm. Translation: no rush to cut rates. Maybe even hike again.
Money markets now pricing ~50% chance of a September hike, up from 36% before the speech. Barclays and SocGen both see hikes coming in September and December.
Dollar rallied. Treasury curve flattened. Gold dropped. Oil drifted lower on quiet Iran headlines.
Cyclicals got hit hardest as the hawkish tone sank in. If the Fed's not worried about growth, risk assets have less room to run.