The BTC 4-year halving cycle might be breaking this time.
Past three cycles (2013/2017/2021) topped 12-18 months post-halving. We're now 24 months past the April 2024 halving and still chopping under ~$73k.
Possible reasons: ETFs changed flow structure, institutions extended holding periods, macro headwinds stayed persistent. The cycle may be stretching, not disappearing.
Lesson for retail: stop trading on 'post-halving = bull market' as a reflex. Fundamentals and flow data matter more than historical pattern-matching now.
Past three cycles (2013/2017/2021) topped 12-18 months post-halving. We're now 24 months past the April 2024 halving and still chopping under ~$73k.
Possible reasons: ETFs changed flow structure, institutions extended holding periods, macro headwinds stayed persistent. The cycle may be stretching, not disappearing.
Lesson for retail: stop trading on 'post-halving = bull market' as a reflex. Fundamentals and flow data matter more than historical pattern-matching now.