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AI-Refined Summary of September Nonfarm Payroll Expectations

Economists broadly expect modest growth in September’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls, with most forecasts clustered around a 40,000–55,000 job increase and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.

Key institutional perspectives:

Rockefeller anticipates a +50,000 increase, viewing the job market as stable despite earlier weak data.

Indeed Hiring Lab expects little change, seeing continued labor-market softness.

Pantheon Macroeconomics warns that after a six-week data gap from the shutdown, any negative surprise may be over-interpreted.

Reuters survey shows a consensus of +50,000, suggesting August was distorted by seasonal effects and could be revised higher.

Loyola Marymount University highlights a clear slowdown but not a recession.

Nationwide sees a +40,000–50,000 gain, with companies mostly in a "no hiring, no firing" posture.

Credit Agricole forecasts +55,000, describing the labor market as cooling but not collapsing.

Standard Chartered expects very weak Sept–Nov hiring, with minimal seasonal gains and elevated layoffs—potentially nudging the Fed toward rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs projects +80,000 but warns October data (not yet released) may show a –50,000 decline.

Union Bank predicts ~+40,000, expecting muted market reaction due to ample private-sector data.

RSM expects slightly better-than-feared results once revisions are included, but still sees overall economic and labor-market strain.

Overall consensus:

The U.S. labor market is cooling, not collapsing, with modest job growth expected and elevated uncertainty after recent data disruptions.

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