📉 BTC's Critical Juncture: $108.5K Test as Fed Caution Trumps Easing

Bitcoin has slipped below the $110K mark, currently hovering around $108.5K as cautious macro sentiment takes hold. The technical structure remains precarious—a familiar setup seen before major recoveries—with the 50-week EMA (~$100.8K) still the ultimate floor. The market is now deciding whether institutional strength will trigger a bounce or if this latest price dip breaks the pattern.

Fed Tightens Forward Guidance: The Federal Reserve officially cut the policy rate to 3.75%–4.00% and confirmed Quantitative Tightening (QT) will cease on December 1st. Crucially, Chairman Powell signaled that a December cut is "not assured" and future policy will be strictly data-dependent, dampening the risk-on sentiment and contributing to immediate market weakness.

Coinbase Expands Institutional Footprint: Coinbase confirmed its $375M acquisition of Echo, an on-chain capital raising platform, significantly expanding its suite of institutional and private investment products.

CME Expiry Volatility: The volatility-inducing CME Bitcoin Futures expiry (Oct 31) is taking place today, contributing to short-term price pressure.

ISM PMI Next Cue: All eyes turn to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 3) release for guidance on post-Fed market sentiment. The previous official reading (September) was 49.1, remaining in contraction territory.

🔍 As the key October futures settle and Fed caution reigns, the coming days will be a crucial test of Bitcoin's ability to maintain its pattern of recovery or face a deeper correction toward its long-term moving average.