Bitcoin’s RSI has crossed below the 14 SMA and in past events this led to a drop of over 20 percent.
The current setup shows a clear warning signal with a possible price target forming near the $95K level.
If history repeats again then Bitcoin could see a correction of $24K from the $113K to $115K zone.
Bitcoin (BTC) may face a potential drop to $95,000 following a rare technical event on the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI). According to a new chart shared by market analyst Ali (@ali_charts), BTC's RSI has fallen below its 14-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) — a move that previously triggered price corrections of 20% to 30%.
https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1952905714957177085 RSI Crossover Signal Triggers Correction Fears
The chart, created using TradingView, reveals three vertical bars highlighting previous RSI crossover points. The first occurred in April 2024, followed by another in December 2024, and now in late July 2025. In both prior instances, Bitcoin corrected sharply within weeks of the RSI breaking below the 14 SMA.
In April 2024, Bitcoin dropped 27.93%, losing approximately $28,024. A similar pattern in December 2024 saw a decline of 24.76%, or $24,893. The most recent crossover now suggests a possible downside move of 20.65%, which would translate to a $24,716 drop from recent levels.
The current price sits around $113,586, with the RSI curve positioned just below the 14 SMA line. If history repeats, a similar correction could bring Bitcoin down near the $95,000 range. This setup has not appeared frequently on the weekly timeframe, increasing the significance of the signal.
Market Participants React to Technical Breakdown
The chart has gained wide attention, especially as Bitcoin hovers below the $115,000 resistance zone. With weekly RSI breaking trend support, analysts are revisiting potential downside targets in the $90,000–$95,000 range. Although not guaranteed, the alignment of technical data has amplified caution among market participants.
In a tweet posted on August 6, 2025, Ali noted that “the last two times the weekly RSI dropped below the 14 SMA, Bitcoin corrected by 20% to 30%.” This historical observation supports the idea that the recent drop could mark the start of another short-term pullback.
The RSI, a widely followed momentum indicator, measures the speed and change of price movements. When it crosses under its moving average on high timeframes, it often signals slowing momentum. This tends to precede profit-taking or broader retracement in asset prices.
Volume data remains neutral, showing no unusual spikes that would typically accompany panic selling. However, sentiment is beginning to shift, as technical traders highlight the importance of past patterns and how they’ve impacted Bitcoin’s price action.
Could Bitcoin Reverse or Extend Its Correction to $95K?
The key question now centers on whether Bitcoin will follow historical precedent or defy expectations in the coming weeks. The RSI crossover below the 14 SMA has only happened twice before since early 2024, and both instances resulted in steep corrections.
If Bitcoin follows this trend, a drop of 20.65% could take the price to $95,000. This zone may act as a psychological and technical support level. However, failure to hold above that could invite deeper pullbacks into the low $90,000 range.
Traders will monitor whether the weekly candle closes below the SMA again next week, which could validate the bearish outlook. On the contrary, if BTC reclaims momentum and moves above $115,000, it may neutralize the signal and shift focus to the $120,000 resistance.
In the short term, all eyes are on how BTC reacts to the $113,000–$115,000 band. Will Bitcoin confirm the RSI warning with a full 20% correction toward $95K?
