Summary:
Bitcoin is trading near $118.7K while total miner holdings remain at historically low levels around 1.809M BTC. Despite the price rally, miners are not showing aggressive accumulation or distribution. This balance suggests muted sell pressure from miners, keeping the broader bullish structure intact.
Body:
The latest data shows total miner reserves hovering at ~1.809M BTC, the lowest band seen since early 2022. Historically, sharp increases in miner outflows have preceded local tops, while deep reductions in reserves tend to coincide with long-term accumulation phases.
Key observations:
No Significant Distribution: Miner holdings remain flat despite BTC approaching a new local high near $119K.
Supply Pressure Stable: Unlike past rallies where miners offloaded heavily, current outflows are modest.
Price-Reserve Divergence: Since mid-2024, BTC price has surged from ~$60K to nearly $119K, while miner reserves stayed subdued – indicating that supply pressure is not driving this rally.
Implications:
Bullish Medium-Term Structure: Stable reserves imply miners are not aggressively selling, allowing institutional flows and spot ETF demand to dominate price action.
Short-Term Watchpoint: If miner reserves spike upward toward 1.82M–1.83M BTC, it could signal upcoming profit-taking and weigh on BTC’s ability to hold $116K–$118K support.
Conclusion:
As long as miner reserves remain near current lows and do not trend upward, BTC’s medium-term uptrend remains supported. The key level to monitor is $116K support – holding this zone while miners stay inactive could trigger another leg toward $124K–$130K.
Written by Chairman Lee
