Jameson Lopp, CTO and co-founder of the self-custody platform Casa, along with five other developers, has proposed new strategies to counter the potential threat of quantum computing.
Their proposal aims to steer Bitcoin holders to adopt more secure, quantum-resistant storage methods and implement additional protective measures.
Quantum algorithms are a threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic pillars
Crypto experts say quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption system. The network applies cryptographic security measures such as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to protect wallets and SHA-256 to confirm mining and transactions.
Quantum algorithms, however, pose a threat to these systems. For example, Shor’s algorithm might allow attackers to solve the math underlying these protections, making it possible to expose a private key from a known public key.
Many Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) and Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash (P2PKH) addresses are exposed, which puts an estimated 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply in danger, according to a Deloitte study. Furthermore, with identifiable public keys, Satoshi Nakamoto’s dormant wallets would also be vulnerable to quantum attacks.
The same applies to another quantum algorithm that threatens the security of Bitcoin — Grover’s algorithm, which cuts the effective security of SHA-256 by 50%.
In May, Lopp had cautioned that quantum signature schemes have become significantly larger, which could reopen debates about Bitcoin’s ability to handle high transaction volumes.
He also warned that if a quantum computer could break the ECDSA pillar, it would be disastrous—stolen BTC will fill the markets, undermining trust and possibly triggering a price collapse.
Experts have articulated that existing quantum computers cannot crack ECDSA now. Some anticipate that quantum computing will become a real threat in at least 10 years, seeing how engineers are still working on building fault-tolerant systems.
However, some analysts believe Bitcoin could be in trouble in the next five years if quantum computers advance beyond expectations, an opinion many have brushed off as unlikely.
Earlier, Lopp argued that while it’s not easy to estimate how long they have before quantum computing becomes a real threat, the Bitcoin community should collaborate to come up with solutions before it grows into an existential crisis.
Lopp’s proposal would have BTC owners shift to post-quantum secure addresses
Lopp had help from five other developers to draft the Bitcoin improvement plan. In the proposal, they iterated that Bitcoin is under threat, noting that a successful quantum attack would hurt economies and possibly the entire ecosystem.
The proposal also details that miners would have to transfer funds to post-quantum secure addresses and restrict Bitcoin spending within five years. It stated: “It turns quantum security into a private incentive. Fail to upgrade [to a new address type] and you will certainly lose access to your funds.” Ideally, the plan includes incentives for Bitcoin owners who shift to more secure addresses.
In his proposal, Lopp also references BIP 360, an upgrade created by Anduro’s Senior Protocol Engineer, Hunter Beast, to introduce address formats incorporating post-quantum cryptography at varying security levels. Other developers, such as Michael B. Casey, Director of Engineering at Marathon, have also contributed their own ideas to strengthen Bitcoin’s defenses.
Casey introduced the hourglass narrative, dictating that vulnerable wallet types like pay-to-public-key reduce their number of transactions. He argued that fewer transactions would give the community time to look into other alternatives, at least delaying access to tokens to eight months from a few hours. He further noted that the move would cause hackers to target the older wallets that many people rarely use.
Meanwhile, tech giants like Google and Microsoft have poured significant resources into advancing quantum computing.
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