For the first time in nearly two years, the macro trend oscillator is about to post a green monthly print.
Every time it flips, the market re-prices.
We’re potentially closing July green. But even if not, August is almost guaranteed. If you’re waiting for a confirmation beyond this, you’re effectively waiting for 20–30% higher prices to make a decision.
Global M2 just hit an all-time high of $94.6 trillion, growing at its fastest pace since the pandemic stimulus era. And Bitcoin, which has lagged this metric by ~100 days consistently since 2015, is finally catching up.
Historical trend is clear:
2016–2017: Moderate M2 growth → BTC 50x
2020–2021: Stimulus-fueled M2 explosion → BTC 8x
2022: M2 contraction → BTC crashes to $17K
2025: M2 expanding faster than equities or gold → BTC consolidating above $100K, with room for parabolic expansion
Yes, pockets of the market are euphoric. But zoom out, and most of the capital is still underweight, waiting for breakdowns or confirmation. If they are expecting clean retracements and orderly entries.
There is a bear thesis:
Inflation reaccelerates, central banks panic, rate hikes return, and global liquidity reverses. M2 growth turns negative. BTC retraces to $50K.
But you have to believe that central banks will voluntarily tank asset markets, crush credit, and ignore their own debt obligations while growth in China, Europe, and emerging markets is already fragile.
If the last two years taught us anything, it’s that policy flexibility is now the default. Every market wobble gets met with easing. Bitcoin isn’t immune to macro stress, but it is disproportionately favored by any re-expansion in money supply or dovish pivot in rates.