- $BTC is holding above ATH
- ETH/BTC broke a 4-year downtrend
- RSI divergence
- Retail & alt index still bottomed
$BTC spent the last 3 months ranging, bouncing 3 times between $98K–$110K
Alts pumped 10% on each move up – then nuked 60% on each move down. Everyone's tired of it
Most will call this just another dead cat bounce - but I think it's the real breakout and altszn start
Why?
Alts have officially broken their bottom.
Yeah, alts were trash the entire past year – but that last dump wasn’t just noise, it was a 4-year low for most coins.
And that changes everything.
Before, most alts weren’t ready to move due to oversupply and inflated valuations left over from the last bull run.
Because of that, they didn’t have a clear bottom – they just kept bleeding endlessly.
But now the game has changed.
Many new tokens have died off. What’s left are either proven older players or new ones that actually delivered and showed real product-market fit.
All the existing ones are now trying to show some kind of value.
They’ve finally printed a bottom, broke their lower lows, and flipped trend structure – maybe not fully bullish yet, but no longer bearish, at least on the lower timeframes.
Now, the perfect setup has formed for a cycle repeat, just like always.
Previous cycle tops:
- Nov 29, 2013 – $1,242
- Dec 17, 2017 – ~$19k
- Nov 10, 2021 – ~$69k
This implies the next top may arrive around Nov–Dec 2025 - so the cycle patterns still works
ETH is finally moving – outperforming both BTC and SOL since the last dip:
$SOL: $100 → $164
$BTC: $75K → $118K
$ETH: $1.45K → $3K
Most overlooked this, but it matters.
This is the first time in 2 years ETH has shown real strength vs majors.
Why does this matter?
The default crypto cycle structure is: BTC → ETH → ALTSZN.
This entire cycle, BTC outperformed the market – but that’s finally shifting.
We’re likely entering phase 2:
BTC.D is dropping
Altcoins showing strength
That’s exactly why I sold 30% of my BTC and rotated into alts.
Not because I don’t believe in further upside – but because I do.
And I want leverage on that upside.
I believe my alt bags will now outperform BTC.
which means I can stack more Bitcoin by riding the alt run.
We also have super bullish macro news:
- No tariffs
- No WW3
- 100% chance of rate cuts (maybe even 2)
All of this creates ideal and obvious conditions for growth
And the main reason: 100% chance of rate cuts
Inside the FOMC, there's a split - some members are voting for rate cuts
At the same time, Powell wants to keep a flexible stance and avoid cutting prematurely.
He commented it smth like: “Let’s wait and study the data.”
But here's the thing - Trump needs rate cuts, and that means they’re guaranteed to happen.
After all, Trump even pressured Powell before, threatening to fire him back in the day.
So what will rate cuts do?
A double rate cut will weaken the dollar significantly and inject huge liquidity into markets
For crypto - as a high-risk asset - this sounds extremely bullish.
So with everything I mentioned above the growth for now is inevitable
As for price targets, I’d personally look to close the next 45% of BTC pos in $135k–$140k range (25% is in hold forever)
It might go higher, but beyond that, R/R becomes unfavorable
In any case, I believe we’ll see a drop in BTC.D & "altseason", so that's where I'll make profit
And obviously, I plan to buy back BTC. I’m not leaving the crypto market – there’s simply nowhere else with this kind of ROI.
I just believe we’ll get much better entries later – and that’s when I’ll reload, growing my total BTC stack.
There’s no point in holding everything forever.
Take profit, withdraw a little for life, diversify, and re-enter at better prices.
It's a must, if you don't wanna miss it all.
I asked myself one question:
“If BTC hits $135K, would I still want to buy it with fresh cash?”
The answer was no.
So I’m locking in some gains – and waiting for the lower entry.
And the bottom line:
Those expecting an altseason like in 2021 are likely to lose all their money.
Cause how can you expect a repeat when we have increasing unlocks and token dispersion?
We’re in a completely different market structure now
So you either adapt or lose
Overall, don’t get mistakenly sidelined by assuming current prices are the peak or the ATH
Stick to your plan and never invest more than you’re willing to lose.
Adapt your portfolio, make it work for you, and remember to take profits.
That’s how you’ll make the most out of this cycle.
If you don’t have a strategy yet, here’s what you need:
- Risk Management
- Portfolio Building
- How to Find Right Alts
- Right Influencers