Bitcoin’s MVRV holds at 2.26 above the 365-day trendline, reinforcing market strength as the price trades near $80K.
BCMI climbs to 0.55, signaling rising risk ahead of the critical 0.60–0.75 zone that often precedes sharp pullbacks.
Despite trading near $100K, Bitcoin’s market structure shows no euphoria—just steady accumulation and healthy trend support.
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has bounced sharply off the 365-day moving average, holding the firm above the 2.2 level. Meanwhile, the broader market index BCMI now rises toward a threshold that historically triggers shake-outs.
MVRV Holding Above SMA365 Keeps Bull Trend Alive
Bitcoin’s MVRV sits at 2.26, remaining above its long-term average, which continues to climb with a consistent structure. In a post by Cryptoquant.com, analysts noted that “MVRV > SMA365 → Bull trend intact,” tying the ratio to market continuation. This zone held firm after a deep 2022 reset when both price and MVRV dipped into the bottom territory.
https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1942109256167084357
That correlation between undervaluation and accumulation played out through early 2023 when MVRV rebounded from sub-1 levels. Price surged past $30K during the same stretch, pushing back into bullish territory with increasing strength. Each rally since then has respected the SMA365 as support, confirming investor conviction across volatile phases.
Mid-2024 brought a temporary breakdown, labeled on the chart as the “5 August Black Swan,” which disrupted both trendlines. Still, the structure recovered fast - MVRV reclaimed the moving average, while the price stabilized around the $80K range. The green circle now marks a key retest bounce, reinforcing the trend and rejecting downside bias.
BCMI Pushes Higher But Signals Shake-Out Risk Ahead
While MVRV suggests strength, the Combined Market Index (BCMI) is approaching a zone known for sharp corrections. The index now prints 0.55, rising from 0.25 since early 2023 - a move that has mirrored Bitcoin’s price recovery. However, the reading stays below the 0.75 threshold tied to historic tops and cycle exhaustion.
According to a report by Woo_Minkyu, “The 0.60–0.75 zone has repeatedly delivered 20–35% shake-outs before any cycle peak.” This range tends to trigger short-term volatility before any final euphoric rally plays out. The current setup shows that although sentiment is heating up, market conditions are not yet overextended.
The chart marks two key points-one in early 2023, the other near current levels in 2025. Price is pushing toward cycle highs, but this time without the blow-off signs that defined the 2021 top. That gap between price highs and BCMI readings shows the rally remains grounded - not driven by mania.
Structure Intact, but Momentum Faces Tests Near Resistance
Bitcoin now trades just below $100K, consolidating above $80K while both metrics maintain structurally bullish conditions. The 7-day BCMI average has ticked upward again, while the 90-day line stays flat - showing near-term strength with long-term caution. MVRV holding above the SMA365 reinforces the broader trend, even as pullback zones start to form.
This dual setup elevated price and climbing BCMI points to growing upside risk but also increased volatility. If BCMI crosses 0.6, history shows it could spark fast shake-outs before trend continuation or exhaustion. For now, the key technicals remain in check: MVRV is above trend, BCMI is rising, and the price structure still favors bulls.
The post Bitcoin’s MVRV Reclaims Trend Support, but BCMI Warns of Volatility Ahead appears on Coin Futura. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.
