ETH Deposits to Binance: A Precursor to Selling Pressure?
* On July 1, 2025, nearly 100,000 ETH (~$250M at current prices) were deposited into Binance in two separate waves.
* Large exchange inflows typically suggest an increase in Ethereum reserves held on exchanges.
* Historical patterns show that such movements can precede short-term price declines, especially if accompanied by weak Open Interest trends.
Bearish Divergence: Ethereum Price vs. Binance Open Interest :
* A notable divergence has emerged between Ethereum’s price and Binance Open Interest.
* Since June 26th, Ethereum has printed three consecutive local highs above the $2,500 mark, showing strong bullish momentum in spot markets.
* In contrast, ETH Open Interest on Binance has failed to confirm this rally, forming three lower highs, all below the $5.6B mark.
* The divergence indicates that fewer traders are willing to commit new capital to long positions, possibly hinting at uncertainty or skepticism surrounding the sustainability of the move.
Macro Pressure: Fed Net Liquidity in Decline
* Compounding this technical divergence is the ongoing contraction in U.S. Fed Net Liquidity, which has declined from approximately $6.2 trillion to $5.84 trillion in recent weeks.
* Lower Fed liquidity generally restricts access to cheap capital and reduces risk appetite across all asset classes.
* This backdrop creates a headwind for sustained upside in ETH and other digital assets unless offset by significant idiosyncratic demand.
Conclusion: A Cautious Outlook Amidst Macroeconomic Crosscurrents
The long-term bullish outlook for Ethereum remains intact, depending on an improvement in broader macroeconomic conditions. However, Ethereum could face a slight short-term pullback.
Traders and investors should keep a close eye on on-chain flows and Open Interest trends in the days ahead.
Written by Amr Taha
