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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
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André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
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H1 is in the books! What to expect for H2 2025? A couple of #bitcoin model forecasts and implied performances until year-end 2025: Current price: 108k Power Law: 119.9k (+11%) BAERM: 172.8k (+60%) S2F: 226.3k (+109%) *NOTE: Not official Bitwise forecasts. NFA.
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Fed: "Printer is coming" Bitcoiners: "Winter is cancelled"
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GM ☕️ Year-to-date performance in H1 2025 so far: #Bitcoin: -0.1% Nikkei: -1.2% MSCI World: -3.5% Nasdaq 100: -5.1% S&P 500: -6.2% US Treasuries 7-10y: -7.2% Bitcoin very resilient despite record economic policy uncertainty, US recession risks and geopolitical risks.
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FWIW - Don’t think that the 60/40 is dead because of the rise of exponential tech but rather because of rising inflation around the globe. You can clearly show that the stock-bond correlation becomes significantly positive once you cross a certain inflation threshold (around 3% <) No diversification in a high inflation environment. Plus, average real performances of both stocks and bonds become negative above a 5% threshold. Only remedy is to diversify into hard assets like #bitcoin or gold. Ignore at your own peril.
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I don’t know who needs to hear this but the potential inflows into MSTR following SPX inclusion will probably be significantly higher. Concentrated equity fund managers will NEED to hold MSTR to avoid significant underperformance vis-à-vis peers. It’s a matter of risk mgmt…
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