U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls could shift Fed rate expectations, directly impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and DeFi market sentiment.
ISM Manufacturing PMI may influence risk appetite, potentially driving crypto inflows amid economic weakness or pullbacks if activity rebounds.
Fed Chair Powell’s speech could trigger crypto repricing, depending on hawkish or dovish policy signals.
Monday, June 30
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM)
Tuesday, July 1
Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
U.S.Markit Manufacturing PMI (Monthly)
U.S.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monthly)
U.S.JOLTS Job Openings (Monthly)
Wednesday, July 2
U.S.ADP Employment Change (Monthly)
U.S.Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change
Thursday, July 3
U.S.Early market close ahead of Independence Day
U.S.Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
U.S.Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
U.S.Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly)
U.S.Unemployment Rate (Monthly)
U.S.Markit Services PMI (Monthly)
U.S.ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Monthly)
Friday, July 4
U.S.Independence Day Holiday (Full Market Closure)
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls – A Macro Catalyst for Crypto Volatility
The Nonfarm Payrolls report is a critical macro signal that shapes expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Strong job growth could reduce the likelihood of rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting short-term pressure on crypto assets like BTC and ETH.
On the flip side, weaker employment data may revive hopes for monetary easing, boosting investor appetite for risk-on assets — particularly crypto. Stablecoin demand and DeFi borrowing rates may also shift depending on the broader liquidity environment triggered by this data.
ISM Manufacturing PMI – A Forward-Looking Indicator for Risk Appetite
As an early gauge of U.S. industrial activity, the ISM Manufacturing PMI influences overall market sentiment.
Readings below 50 suggest contraction and may fuel narratives around economic stagnation or soft landing, potentially driving institutional interest toward alternative assets like Bitcoin.
In on-chain terms, macro weakness could lead to increased flows into DeFi protocols as investors seek yield, boosting stablecoin utilization and TVL. A strong rebound, however, could reignite hawkish Fed expectations and dampen crypto momentum.
Fed Chair Powell’s Speech – A Trigger for Crypto Repricing
Every speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell has the potential to shift the trajectory of crypto markets. Hawkish commentary typically favors the dollar and Treasuries, causing risk assets — including crypto — to retreat.
Conversely, dovish remarks often spark rallies in BTC, ETH, and even high-beta tokens like memecoins and NFTs.
Powell’s tone on topics like digital assets, inflation, and financial stability can also provide indirect clues about future U.S. regulatory or policy directions that may affect stablecoins and DeFi ecosystems.
WEEKLY SUMMARY
This week, crypto markets are likely to be driven by a dense lineup of key U.S. macroeconomic events, each with the potential to reshape risk sentiment and liquidity conditions.
On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, with markets watching closely for any shifts in tone regarding inflation and monetary policy.
Given recent speculation around rate cuts, even subtle hawkish or dovish cues could impact BTC and ETH volatility in the short term.
Also on Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI data will offer insight into the health of the U.S. industrial economy. A weak reading could support the “soft landing” narrative and boost demand for alternative assets, including crypto.
On the other hand, a surprise to the upside may strengthen the dollar and trigger a pullback in digital assets.
The most anticipated event lands Thursday with the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Labor market data will be crucial for shaping Fed policy expectations heading into Q3.
A hot jobs print could pressure risk assets, while a slowdown in hiring may support broader market risk-on positioning — including in DeFi and altcoin sectors.
Finally, U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day, which could lead to thinner liquidity and higher volatility around major events earlier in the week.
Investors and traders in the crypto space should remain alert, as macro developments this week could significantly impact capital flows, stablecoin velocity, and overall market momentum.
〈Crypto Weekly Outlook (6/30–7/06)｜Fed Signals and Major Economic Data Ahead〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
