Bitcoin’s rally to $107K is being fueled by leveraged futures trades, while spot market interest remains unusually subdued.
Futures volume is falling despite high prices, signaling traders may be stepping back from risk in a cooling speculative environment.
Five sharp futures volume rejections since February show weakening momentum even as BTC trades near record highs.
Bitcoin's latest run has been driven by an acceleration of futures market activity, with spot trading steady. The imbalance, according to Glassnode data, indicates the recent price action has been leveraged speculation-driven rather than organic buying demand, an important indicator for traders seeking to determine trend continuation.
If futures activity is high and not backed by spot inflows, it is more likely to be a leverage-driven rally by short-term participants rather than long-term confidence. When price momentum slows down, leveraged traders who are attempting to shoot for higher returns have a greater possibility of liquidation. This is a volatile scenario in which gains in price can be easily reversed.
Futures Volume Leads as Speculation Drives the Trend
In a post by Glassnode, it was noted that Bitcoin’s “futures volume stayed elevated during the recent push,” while the spot market lagged. The following graph charts BTC futures volume on all exchanges (blue bars) versus BTC price (black line), from August 2023 through June 2025.
Between August 2023 and February 2024, futures volume went up steadily to more than $100 billion in mid-February. BTC price also followed in the same direction, increasing from $25,000 to more than $65,000. During this period, there was an evident correlation between market optimism and speculative interest, with robust trend confirmation.
However, since February, futures volume has begun a slow downtrend. Five major volume spikes, each marked in the chart, were followed by deep pullbacks. These repeated rejections signal reduced speculative strength, even as Bitcoin continued to trade in a high range.
Structural Dislocation Highlights Cooling Momentum
According to Glassnode, the divergence between BTC’s price and futures activity grew more visible after January 2025. While Bitcoin regained the area around $110,000, futures volume still remained under $70 billion. Volume eventually stabilized at $50-60 billion by June 2025, well above major support levels since late 2024.
This dislocation suggests a strategic shift in participation. Leverage appears to be fading while spot flows hold the price structure intact. The decoupling may point to more institutional positioning or OTC accumulation over high-frequency speculation.
Traders must interpret this trend carefully. Elevated prices paired with softening volume often indicate exhaustion. If spot demand doesn't rise to support the trend, further upside may stall or reverse sharply.
As of late June, Bitcoin remains near $80,000. Futures activity, however, is consolidating under pressure. Whether the next leg is driven by fresh spot demand or breaks down under its weight depends on how traders adapt in the coming weeks.
The post Glassnode Finds BTC Futures Volume Cooling-Is a Spot-Led Move Coming? appears on Coin Futura. Visit our website to read more interesting articles about cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and digital assets.
