AI entered the era of GPT wrappers. Crypto followed with BTC | game_for_one sur Binance Square

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AI entered the era of GPT wrappers.Crypto followed with BTC wrappers.

Avertissement : comprend des opinions de tiers. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil financier. Peut inclure du contenu sponsorisé. Consultez les CG.

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Thinking through the CRCL buyers after speaking to a few people, it seems the second and third legs were mostly dumb money. The thesis echoed GME: something shiny to ape into after getting wrecked on alts and months of stablecoin headlines. Fundamentals? P/E multiples? Thrown out entirely. Classic left curve. Right curve would’ve been seeing how far retail degeneracy could go and front-running the full-port frenzy. Midcurvers were stuck debating P/E multiples, saying it’s worse than Tether (which you can’t even buy and isn’t US-endorsed), arguing Coinbase comps, trying to force logic onto something that was never about logic.

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People often say “focus on your domain.” But in narrative trading, your execution zone - when you enter, is just as important as what you trade. Every new project or narrative has 3 clear legs: 1) The quiet leg: Before the crowd. Still under the radar: low volume, little attention. This leg is about forming early conviction based on incomplete signals - acting before the narrative is obvious. It rewards vision, patience, and conviction. You buy when it feels uncomfortable. 2) The expansion leg: The story starts to spread. The story catches on. Volume picks up, price accelerates. This leg rewards timing and momentum. You’re no longer early and once you spot it, you have to move. Position sizing and execution matter. You’re riding the wave with others, so hesitation costs. 3) The saturation leg: Everyone’s watching. Most know. The trade is crowded, and edge shifts to speed and precision. Narrative proliferation means reactions are stronger - price moves faster on news, tweets, and rotations. But with more eyes on it, competition is fierce. At this stage, it’s less about having the best thesis, more about reacting better and faster than others. You don’t need to trade every part. Figure out which leg fits your style and lean into it. Your edge isn’t in doing more. It’s in knowing when you’re most effective.

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Resolv looks like it hurt nearly everyone on CT. Early entries, oversized bags, and vague unlock info - punished across the board. Has to stop at some point, but catching it right has been a killer.

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Taking someone else's thesis and deciding to follow it isn’t inherently bad, it’s a step up from blindly chasing a “call” with no reasoning behind it. But what people often miss is how much of the outcome depends on how you execute it. You need to align with or consciously adapt their: - Holding horizon - Entry method: Are they fully in? Planning to average up or down? Was it a size-on-confirmation play or early sizing? - Position size: Is this a high-conviction allocation or a small flyer? Can they exit cleanly? Can you, without slippage? - Risk tolerance: Can they sit through a -20% drawdown? Can you? - Access & speed: How active are they? Do they have faster access to updates, info flow than you? Can they pivot quicker? And most importantly, define exit and invalidation conditions: - Time-based: If the thesis relies on attention or a narrative catching on, how long are you willing to wait before calling it? 1 month? 3 months? - Price-based: Where does the structure break? What range invalidates your setup? - Catalyst-based: What if the catalyst leaks early and price runs before the event do you sell into that strength? What if the event passes and the market shrugs, is that your exit? - Macro override: A changing market regime can negate local setups, sometimes it's not about your trade. You can’t predict black swans, but you can define how you'll act when chaos hits - predefine response plans, adjust size, or sideline entirely. Same thesis, different execution = different results.

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What’s the most convincing bear case you see that could drive us below the War low?

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