Market Bullish - Coinfutura

  • Short-term Bitcoin holders dominated Binance inflows, while long-term investors held firm despite strong market recovery signals.

  • Crabs and Fish wallets showed steady inflows, aligning with key price shifts and hinting at structured liquidity activity.

  • Bitcoin inflows fell sharply in May, pointing to reduced short-term sell pressure and stronger conviction among smaller holders.

Bitcoin inflows into Binance have been dominated by short-term holders, with long-term participants largely sitting out. Despite Bitcoin’s strong price recovery, large holders have shown little inclination to move their assets onto exchanges.

Dominance of Short-Term Supply Signals Reactive Market Activity

Binance’s Bitcoin inflow structure over the last six months reveals a clear pattern of short-term dominance. “Despite the high BTC price and increasing LTH activity, data indicates that inflows from the very largest holders remain remarkably subdued,” stated a report by CryptoQuant. The dense blue zones on the chart denote a steady stream of coins aged under 155 days entering exchanges at a daily range of 75,000 to 110,000 BTC.

https://twitter.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1927769043177488528

In contrast, long-term holders have kept inflow volumes flatlined. The orange inflow bars, representing coins older than 155 days, peaked only at 6.6 BTC during the observed period, underscoring minimal participation. According to CryptoQuant data, this restraint signals ongoing conviction among seasoned investors.

The strongest short-term spike occurred around February 24, as over 110,000 BTC entered Binance daily. This influx coincided with a local price bottom, illustrating a pattern where short-term traders drive volatility at market inflection points.

Sustained Inflows from Retail and Mid-Tier Wallets

Crab and Fish wallets have consistently supported Binance’s liquidity pool. Crabs (1–10 BTC) led inflow volumes throughout the window, with consistent activity from early January to late May. On May 21, Crabs posted their highest entry at 69.86 BTC, mirroring breakout phases in BTC’s price.

Simultaneously, Fish wallets (10–100 BTC) added steady inflows between 8 and 25 BTC across multiple dates. This includes a 26.07 BTC inflow on February 24, the same day short-term inflows spiked, suggesting aligned behavior during pivotal market turns. These groups showed synchronized activity, particularly near local price peaks.

The ongoing inflows from these cohorts reflect persistent redistribution rather than outright dumping. As the white price line climbed from under $95K to over $24K, their actions suggest structured liquidity management by smaller entities.

Spike-Reaction Pattern Shows Declining Sell Pressure

While January saw short-term inflows peak at 45.15K BTC, May closed with lower pressure levels near 7.98 BTC. The 5.4K BTC figure near May’s end is considerably below earlier inflow highs, implying reduced short-term sell interest. This shift mirrors the fading reactionary behavior among recent market participants.

Long-term holders remained notably absent from all inflow peaks. Their inactivity throughout price surges reinforces the thesis of accumulation and holds discipline. This divergence underscores a transition from speculative churn to stronger hands absorbing supply.

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