Key Takeaways
Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn says markets are “underpricing” the odds of a US Bitcoin reserve being confirmed this year.
President Trump signed an executive order for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March, but no formal plan has been detailed.
Lawmakers have introduced a bill requiring a Treasury feasibility study, signaling movement behind the scenes.
Skeptics say the announcement may slip to 2026 as the US quietly accumulates Bitcoin.
Thorn: Market Ignoring Bitcoin Reserve Odds
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, said there’s still a “strong chance” the United States will confirm its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) before year-end.
“I still think there’s a strong chance the US government will announce this year that it has formed the strategic Bitcoin reserve and is formally holding BTC as a strategic asset,” Thorn said in an X post on Thursday.
Thorn added that the market is “completely underpricing the likelihood” of such an announcement, despite growing signals from Washington.
What’s Happening in Washington
In March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, though a detailed plan has not yet been released.
On Tuesday, lawmakers introduced a bill directing the US Treasury to study the feasibility and technical framework of the reserve.
A July policy update from the administration mentioned the initiative only briefly, but officials have since confirmed it remains a priority project.
These developments have kept speculation alive that the US is preparing to formalize its Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Skeptics Say Timeline Could Slip
Not all analysts believe a 2025 confirmation is likely. Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, argued the administration will likely delay any public announcement until after building initial reserves.
“I’ve made the point many times that this administration is too smart to announce ANYTHING until AFTER they accumulate to their initial target,” Weisburger said.
This view suggests a more cautious timeline, potentially pushing a formal announcement into 2026.
Global Pressure to Act Quickly
Bitcoin advocates warn that the US risks falling behind if it delays.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, argued in June that the US “has to start” buying Bitcoin this year or risk being front-run by other nations.
Kyrgyzstan advanced a bill this week to establish a state crypto reserve.
Indonesia is also exploring a Bitcoin reserve strategy to support national growth.
Such moves highlight the growing geopolitical competition around Bitcoin adoption.
While no formal US reserve has been announced, legislative momentum, executive orders, and global competition are fueling expectations.
If Thorn’s forecast is right, a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement in 2025 could mark one of the biggest milestones yet in Bitcoin’s institutional adoption.
