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The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced on July 29 that Rowland Marcus Andrade, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency AML Bitcoin, has been sentenced to seven years in federal prison following his conviction on charges of wire fraud and money laundering. The verdict, delivered by Chief U.S. District Judge Richard Seeborg, follows a five-week trial earlier this year in which Andrade, 47, was found to have deliberately misled investors through a series of false claims about the development, utility, and market readiness of his digital currency project. His sentencing also includes three years of supervised release, with a future hearing set for Sept. 16 to determine restitution and forfeiture amounts.
Testimony and documents presented during the proceedings detailed how Andrade propagated exaggerated narratives about AML Bitcoin’s functionality and partnerships, including a fabricated assertion that the Panama Canal Authority was preparing to adopt the cryptocurrency. No such agreement existed. Prosecutors explained that these fabrications were used to lure millions in investor funds.
Court documents and evidence presented at trial established that Andrade defrauded cryptocurrency investors out of approximately $10 million,” the DOJ summarized, adding:
The jury also found that Andrade laundered investor funds through a series of bank accounts and then used the funds for his personal expenses and the purchase of the properties and automobiles,” the Justice Department noted.
Federal officials who led the investigation underscored the importance of the conviction in maintaining trust in financial markets. U.S. Attorney Craig H. Missakian stated:
FBI Special Agent in Charge Sanjay Virmani said: “Rowland Marcus Andrade promised innovation but delivered deception. He misled innocent people who believed they were investing in the future of digital currency. Instead, their money was used to fund his personal luxury.” IRS-CI Special Agent Linda Nguyen emphasized the broader message: “Today’s sentencing of Rowland Marcus Andrade is another definitive statement about how white-collar crime does not pay. Mr. Andrade enriched himself by misrepresenting cryptocurrency technological advances he never delivered upon.”
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The trade policies of the Trump administration have hurt the standing of the U.S. debt around the world, principally with heavy treasury holders like China that have been directly affected by these measures. According to recent data published by the U.S. Treasury, Chinese holdings of U.S. treasuries fell to a new low since 2009, with the Chinese government reducing its exposure by nearly $1 billion from the number reported in April.
While this might not be seen as a significant drop by some analysts, others claim that it signals a new direction in the Chinese policy towards acquiring American foreign debt, amidst the dangers of retaliation if trade negotiations go south.
In March, China reduced its exposure to the U.S. debt by nearly $19 billion, falling to the third place among the top holders of treasuries behind Japan and the U.K., while it sold $8.2 billion of its American debt stash in April
Despite the continued selling and ongoing trade tensions between the two nations, China still holds $756.3 billion in U.S. securities, which contradicts the theory that the Chinese government is weaponizing these assets.
Nonetheless, the offloading moves echo the recommendations of Chinese analysts about diversifying the exposure from these potentially risky assets to less troubled commodities, including safe havens like gold and other metals.
The U.S. government’s measures have driven debt holders worldwide to adjust their exposures, driving a substitution of international investors for local buyers. While foreign buyers held 57% of the treasury issuance in 2008, this number has fallen to 32%, signaling potential trust issues in the proficiency of the current administration in dealing with the spiraling debt issue.
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Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed the federal funds rate by a quarter point, and markets are now betting that the January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting delivers no adjustment. Attention has since shifted to the Bank of Japan (BOJ), where expectations are building that the central bank will lift its short-term interbank rate next week.
Japan’s central bank is set to convene its Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) on Dec. 18–19, 2025, with the decision expected on the second day. Markets are bracing for a possible increase to 0.75% from 0.5%, a move that would formally close the chapter on the world’s last remaining negative interest rate regime. When it comes to interest rates, Japan has long stood apart as a global outlier.
The BOJ has persisted with negative short-term rates and tight control over long-term bond yields through its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework, even as other major central banks moved on to rate increases. Many analysts believe this marks the definitive end of the “Carry Trade.”
In simple terms, the strategy involved borrowing low-cost yen and deploying it into higher-yielding assets overseas. The trade only holds together as long as yen funding stays exceptionally cheap and the currency remains steady or drifts lower. At present, leading prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are signaling strong odds that the BOJ will deliver a 25 basis point (bps) increase.
Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly penciling in a quarter-point rate increase from the BOJ, with probabilities hovering near 98%. Every other scenario — no change, a larger move, or a cut — has been largely cast aside, each sitting at 2% or lower, reflecting a near lock that a quarter-point step is the market’s central expectation.
Kalshi traders echo that conviction. A 21–40 basis-point hike at the BOJ meeting next week carries roughly 95% odds, while the chances of no change rest near 2% and a cut barely registers at under 1%. In plain terms, the market is wagering that Japan’s central bank is ready to act. For Federal Reserve rate decisions, traders can lean on the CME Fedwatch tool to gauge expectations ahead of each meeting, while there is no comparable tool for tracking BOJ rate moves.
However, to estimate the odds of a BOJ hike, individuals or institutions can look to futures pricing — specifically 3-Month TONA futures, which capture how traders are wagering on future interest rates. At present, the implied average rate blends the current 0.5% for the early part of the period with the possibility of a higher level later on.
When that figure is weighed against today’s rate and adjusted for timing, the calculation points to roughly an 89% chance of a quarter-point increase.
Many believe this particular rate increase may affect equities and crypto assets. U.S. stocks ended lower on Friday across the board, led by a sharp Nasdaq drop of nearly 400 points. The Dow, S&P 500, and NYSE Composite also closed in the red.
In Japan, data shows the Nikkei closing near 50,800 and the Topix around 3,420, pointing to broad gains after a session that opened with uneven trading. Some observers now expect bitcoin to retreat on a BOJ rate hike, a view gaining traction on X as users circulate the theory. “Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt,” one user wrote. “Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+”
Another user, sharing a chart, added: “Japan rate hikes’ effect on bitcoin—The next one is most likely on Friday, 19th.” That view has fueled speculation that the move could act as another trigger pushing BTC toward the $75,000 range. Whether that scenario plays out remains an open question and will not be answered until the BOJ makes its move. BTC is already down 29% from its $126,000-plus all-time high, and another hit to its valuation could prove painful.
Theories like these are scattered widely across X and other social media platforms. For now, markets remain in wait-and-see mode, with the BOJ holding the final card. Prediction markets, futures pricing, and social media chatter all point to a rate hike, but conviction does not equal certainty. If Japan does move, global ripples are likely, testing everything from equity momentum to bitcoin’s resolve.
Until that decision lands, traders are left navigating probabilities, not outcomes, and positioning for a moment that could reset expectations fast.
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Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, shared a series of lessons on social media platform X this week focused on how individuals can protect and grow wealth during prolonged global economic downturns, with particular emphasis on preparation, asset ownership, and bitcoin.
During a global economic crash, prices on many assets will crash,” Kiyosaki said, “which means a crash may be a good time to acquire assets, such as rental real estate… that provides cash flow.” The famous author noted:
Kiyosaki used this statement to explain that falling asset prices are not inherently negative if investors are financially prepared and liquid. He argued that crashes often reset valuations, allowing disciplined buyers to acquire income-generating assets at discounts. By referencing his experience across multiple downturns, he framed crashes as recurring cycles rather than rare catastrophes, reinforcing his broader lesson that wealth is built through counter-cyclical action rather than fear-driven retreat.
What would you do to increase your wealth during an economic crisis? Best to plan now,” the renowned author asked his followers, underscoring his belief that advance planning, not reaction, determines outcomes when markets deteriorate.
His follow-up posts expanded on the long-term nature of economic decline and his preference for hard and decentralized assets. Kiyosaki explained: “How you can get richer as the world economy collapses. Crashes do not happen overnight. Crashes take decades to occur.” He argued that today’s instability stems from decades of debt expansion and monetary intervention. From that perspective, the acclaimed author urged asset protection outside traditional systems, writing:
Kiyosaki presented bitcoin as “people’s money,” highlighting its fixed supply and independence from central banks as safeguards against currency debasement. Supporters of bitcoin echo this view, pointing to its transparent issuance and censorship resistance, while critics note volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Kiyosaki’s central lesson remains that understanding monetary history and positioning early are key to long-term financial resilience.
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According to Cryptoquant‘s latest report, bitcoin‘s apparent demand metric, which tracks the 30-day change in estimated onchain spot buying activity, stayed negative for the full duration of April’s price run. Perpetual futures demand expanded during the same window as speculative traders pushed prices higher through leverage rather than direct coin accumulation.
Cryptoquant researchers describe the gap between rising futures activity and contracting spot demand as one of the clearest onchain signals that price gains are speculative in nature. When spot demand falls while price climbs, the market’s marginal buyer is positioned in derivatives, not in actual bitcoin.
The analyst’s phased breakdown of demand data makes the dynamic hard to dispute. Each phase of April’s rally showed higher perpetual futures demand alongside negative spot apparent demand. This was not a case of spot buyers lagging behind and catching up. Spot demand actively contracted as futures activity climbed.
Cryptoquant market strategists note that rallies with this structure tend to be self-limiting. Without fresh spot demand to absorb elevated prices, the unwind of futures positioning becomes the primary driver of the next decline.
The historical parallel Cryptoquant researchers draw is direct and worth taking seriously. The same demand signature appeared at the onset of the 2022 bear market, when perpetual futures demand expanded in isolation while spot apparent demand stayed in contraction. That setup preceded a multi-month price decline. Cryptoquant applies onchain demand decomposition consistently across cycles and identifies this pattern as a reliable early indicator of price fragility.
Bitcoin has already begun pulling back from the April peak. Price slipped from $79,000 to $75,000 following the rally’s high, a move consistent with how futures-led rallies historically resolve once speculative positioning begins to unwind. As of Saturday, May 2, BTC is exchanging hands just above $78,000 after trying again to reach the $80,000 mark.
Cryptoquant’s Bull Score Index declined from 50 to 40 in April, crossing back below the neutral threshold and returning to bearish territory. The index briefly reached 50, neutral ground, in mid-April before sliding to 40 by month’s end despite the 20% price gain during that stretch. Cryptoquant describes a score of 40 as conditions “getting bearish,” placing the market in a range historically associated with continued price weakness.
The Bull Score is a composite index Cryptoquant builds from multiple onchain and market indicators, scaled from 0 to 100. Scores above 50 reflect bullish conditions. Scores below 50 reflect bearish conditions. The market action also coincides with the U.S.-Iran conflict and geopolitical rumblings. Yesterday, Trump said the conflict was over, which gave bitcoin another boost alongside equities.
Cryptoquant analysts conclude that without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive territory, any push back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the on-chain support needed to produce a sustained breakout.
The data does not guarantee a repeat of 2022’s prolonged downturn, but Cryptoquant makes clear the current demand structure matches the historical profile of price fragility, not accumulation.
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In the current market landscape, trading on a centralized platform feels like driving on a paved highway, while decentralized trading can often feel like navigating a series of disconnected toll roads. Centralized exchanges ( CEXs) benefit from unified order books, where all global buy and sell interest is concentrated in one engine. This density allows for razor-thin spreads and minimal slippage.
In contrast, decentralized exchange ( DEX) users often pay what can be described as a “sovereignty tax.” The rise of Layer 2 ( L2) scaling solutions—while necessary for reducing costs—has inadvertently sharded liquidity. Instead of one deep pool of capital, liquidity is split across various networks, making it difficult for any single DEX to rival the depth of a major CEX. However, this fragmentation is not a fixed ceiling. As Jean Rausis, co-founder of Everything (formerly Smardex), suggests, “Existing and newly developed L2s are continuously reducing friction.”
A major hurdle for decentralized platforms is the sheer execution speed of their centralized counterparts. For many, the slight lag in a DEX is a manageable trade-off for a fundamental human right in the digital age: control over one’s own assets.
“In terms of speed and liquidity depth it will be a challenge to come close to the execution speed and low impact of a CEX,” Rausis said. Yet, he emphasizes that this comes with a distinct advantage. “At the costs of a fraction of the execution speed you get a fundamental right in return: custodianship of your funds. As a CEX user you will always depend on the willingness and viability of the exchange to trust your funds are safe
The fragility of decentralized protocols is often exposed during high- volatility events. Unlike centralized giants that maintain deep insurance funds, on-chain protocols can fall victim to liquidation cascades. This was vividly illustrated in October 2025, when a market shock triggered $19.35 billion in liquidations within a 24-hour window. In these scenarios, a chain reaction of forced sells can drain a protocol’s entire liquidity pool before the market has a chance to stabilize.
According to Rausis, the vulnerability lies in how these protocols interact with the outside world. “Two key elements of a flash crash liquidation cascade are external pricing and their subsequent immediate liquidations causing manipulated prices to wipe out an otherwise healthy pool,” he said.
To prevent these cascades without resorting to centralized circuit breakers, Rausis, whose platform has introduced a unified DeFi pre-market liquidity pool, argues that “removing the oracle pricing is the best prevention against this type of forced selling.” By allowing the on-chain pool to determine its own pricing and utilizing a time-weighted average price (TWAP) mechanism, protocols ensure assets are only liquidated when the real price has crossed a threshold, rather than being triggered by a flash crash of seconds.
Beyond safety, the next frontier for decentralized finance ( DeFi) is capital efficiency—specifically in the realm of perpetuals. Traditional finance (TradFi) has long held the crown for efficient capital use, often leading DeFi protocols to reduce collateral ratios to dangerous levels just to compete.
Rausis argues that DeFi does not need to mimic these risky ratios to win. Instead, “ DeFi perpetuals are able to rival TradFi in capital efficiency through architectural superiority.” He points to the use of unified liquidity pools, where “a single capital deployment can simultaneously earn yield as it serves as collateral for margin trading.”
By moving away from siloed capital and toward these multi-purpose pools, DeFi can create a more robust system. Furthermore, the shift toward “deterministic thresholds through tick-based liquidations” helps ensure a safe and predictable risk-free trading environment that mirrors the stability of professional markets without their centralized risks
The gap is closing, but the distinctions remain clear. Centralized exchanges will likely remain the home for high-frequency traders prioritizing pure execution. However, as L2s continue to mature and architectural innovations like unified liquidity and TWAP-based pricing become the standard, the disadvantages of DEXs are becoming less of a barrier and more of a manageable trade-off for the ultimate prize: financial autonomy and the security of self-custody.
Meanwhile, Rausis revealed that Everything opted to raise capital through a public dynamic funding round rather than institutional investors because of the difficulty in finding “valuable partners in the current crypto space that will not abuse the power they feel they have by demanding preferential terms.”
This funding approach, he added, allows the community to participate in swapping, lending, and margin trading from day one while the market determines the project’s fair value.
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Colin Goltra is the Chief Executive Officer of Morph, a blockchain platform building universal infrastructure for borderless payments and financial services. He recently joined the Bitcoin.com News Podcast to talk about the market:
In this episode Colin identifies the passing year as the critical “ stablecoin moment,” driven by a perfect storm of regulatory clarity (like the Genius Act and MiCA) and technological advancements on smart-contracting ecosystems that have finally solved the performance and scalability issues that plagued earlier attempts with Bitcoin. Morph’s mission has pivoted to stablecoin-based global payment settlement, adopting a “ruthlessly pragmatic” strategy to prepare for a market that could be dominated by either one or two fiat-backed stablecoins (USD-linked like USDC and USDT) or by a rise in relevant regional stablecoins.
He highlights the profound impact of stablecoins in emerging economies, where access to the dollar provides a crucial hedge against high local fiat inflation, citing the Philippine Peso as a prime example. Looking at the current landscape, Colin pinpoints four key active verticals in crypto: institutional stablecoin-based payments, the significant growth of Real-World Assets ( RWAs), prediction markets for valuable information, and the emerging space of Agentic AI, which will require crypto layers for payment and transacting.
The long-term vision for crypto, according to Colin, anticipates a transition from a purely “cryptonative” era to a more institutional and pragmatic phase over the next decade. He predicts that for the average person, the underlying blockchain infrastructure will “melt away at the UX level,” becoming an invisible rail for better, faster payment solutions. A major challenge remains a knowledge gap for small and mid-sized businesses. To address this, Morph is funding a $150 million payment accelerator to incentivize traditional payment businesses to migrate their transaction volume onto the Morph chain.
Before joining Morph, Colin Goltra served as Chief Operating Officer at Yield Guild Games (YGG) and as Director of Southeast Asia at Binance, where he played a key role in driving regional growth and ecosystem development.
Colin has been in the global crypto ecosystem for over 12 years and remains an avid believer in technology and its ability to improve the world. Prior to crypto, his background was in traditional technology and finance in Silicon Valley.
Morph is a payments-focused blockchain designed to power unified stablecoin liquidity and high-performance onchain settlement. Through native integrations and cross-chain infrastructure, Morph connects exchange liquidity with real-world financial flows.
To learn more about them visit Morph.network, and follow the team on X.
The Bitcoin.com News podcast features interviews with the most interesting leaders, founders and investors in the world of Cryptocurrency, Decentralized Finance ( DeFi), NFTs and the Metaverse. Follow us on iTunes or Spotify.
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HKMA teams up with mainland regulators to develop a cross-border platform linking cargo data and electronic bills of lading, aiming to cut trade finance friction and plug Chinese supply chains into global markets
The MoU signals growing adoption of bitcoin in real-world plumbing, targeting $1.5 trillion in annual cargo finance where paper work and jams still cost a lot in delays in fraud.
By plugging mainland cargo data into Hong Kong’s international-facing infrastructure, officials aim to reduce friction in cross-border trade while reinforcing the city’s status as the primary conduit between China and global capital markets.
Under the agreement, the parties will study the creation of a cross-border platform under the HKMA’s Project Ensemble framework. The initiative will explore the use of electronic bills of lading and blockchain-based documentation to streamline trade finance, while connecting with Hong Kong’s Commercial Data Interchange and CargoX to facilitate secure data sharing.
For Hong Kong, the move extends its digital asset strategy beyond tokenized green bonds and into the real economy. Instead of focusing solely on sovereign issuance or crypto markets, regulators are targeting the operational bottlenecks in cargo finance, where paper documents, fragmented data, and manual verification continue to slow credit decisions.
If successful, the platform could embed Hong Kong deeper into mainland supply chains while offering international investors and banks a compliant gateway to Chinese trade data. In doing so, the city is attempting to turn blockchain from a pilot project into core cross-border financial infrastructure.
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