commodities

While most Western nations keep Russia in sanctions-induced isolation, China has become Moscow's key economic lifeline. In the first half of 2025, the value of Russian precious metal exports to China nearly doubled to $1 billion, driven primarily by a surge in gold prices.

An 80% year-over-year increase, according to Trade Data Monitor, reveals that Russian shipments of gold, silver, and other ores to China are climbing in step with rising metal prices. Gold alone has soared 28% since the start of the year as investors seek a safe haven amid global uncertainty.

China Welcomes What the West Rejects
Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was cut off from major global markets like London and New York. But China remained open — and today it's the gateway for Russian miners. Russia still produces over 300 tons of gold annually, making it the second-largest gold producer in the world.
In addition to gold, palladium and platinum are also flowing into China, driven by demand in its manufacturing sector. Norilsk Nickel, Russia’s top producer of these metals, has shifted entirely to eastern markets — and the strategy is paying off: palladium is up 38% this year, platinum an impressive 59%.

Gold as a Safe Haven for Russian Households
As trust in the ruble continues to decline, Russian consumers are turning to gold. 2024 saw record-high retail demand for coins, bars, and other forms of physical metal. For many households, gold has become an alternative savings account in an era of inflation and currency volatility.

Weak Dollar and Global Chaos Push Gold Higher
On Monday, spot gold prices climbed to $3,369.02 per ounce, while U.S. futures hit $3,376.40. A key factor: a 0.2% decline in the U.S. dollar, making gold more accessible to non-dollar buyers.
“The dollar started the week on a soft note, opening the door for gold,” said analyst Tim Waterer. “As we get closer to the key August 1 tariff deadline with no new deals, gold is likely to break above $3,400 — and possibly beyond.”

Global Uncertainty Intensifies
🔹 Trump’s tariff deadline is approaching fast.

🔹 Fed Governor Waller hints at possible rate cuts.

🔹 ECB is expected to keep rates steady at 2%.

🔹 Japan's ruling coalition lost its upper house majority.
This cocktail of uncertainty is creating the perfect storm for a metals rally. Investors are fleeing to safety — into gold, silver, and platinum — as political tensions rise and traditional returns fade.

#russia , #commodities , #Geopolitics , #MarketVolatility , #china

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This week’s movement in the gold market reveals more than a modest 2% decline—it reflects a shifting macroeconomic undercurrent. Beneath the surface of bullion’s pullback lie three converging signals: the Federal Reserve’s continued caution, renewed uncertainty around tariff policy, and a resilient U.S. dollar drawing capital inward. Together, these elements are not just shaping gold’s trajectory—they’re redrawing the contours of where global capital may seek refuge next.
Despite easing PCE inflation, the Fed has signaled it will not be rushed. Markets are still pricing in a possible rate cut by September, but with diminishing conviction. Treasury yields remain elevated, and the dollar holds firm—both traditionally suppressive to gold’s appeal. Add to this a backdrop of unresolved trade tensions, and investors are left navigating a terrain where conventional safe havens offer fewer certainties than usual.
In that vacuum of clarity, crypto steps forward—not with noise, but with quiet gravitational pull.
When gold’s footing becomes less sure, and traditional hedges are clouded by policy drift and yield pressure, the structural case for digital assets begins to stand out. Bitcoin, in particular, presents a unique blend of scarcity, liquidity, and independence from central bank decision-making. It doesn’t just hedge—it positions.
Looking ahead, the coming week could prove pivotal. Non-farm payrolls, further signals from the Fed, and developments on the tariff front all carry the potential to reshape market sentiment. If gold cannot respond decisively to renewed macro pressure, crypto may absorb the resulting momentum.
The story here isn’t gold versus Bitcoin—it’s about where the next wave of conviction capital will flow. And right now, crypto stands not as a contrarian bet, but as an increasingly rational one in a world seeking alternatives with asymmetric upside.
Gold still has gravity. But crypto has trajectory.
#commodities #XAUUSD #SafeHaven

The *Federal Reserve* just made some big adjustments to its *2025 projections* that could change the economic landscape in the coming years. Here's a quick breakdown of what you need to know:

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*🔥 Key Takeaways from the FOMC Meeting 🔥*

📉 *2025 GDP Growth Cut*:
- *New projection*: 1.7% (down from *2.1%* in December).
- This signals a *slower-than-expected recovery*.

📈 *Higher Unemployment*:
- Forecast now *4.4%* (up from *4.3%*).
- The job market might face more challenges than expected.

💰 *Inflation Concerns Grow*:
- *PCE Inflation*: Revised up to *2.7%* (from *2.5%*).
- *Core PCE Inflation*: Jumps to *2.8%* (from *2.5%*).
- This shows inflation pressures are lingering.

❌ *No 2025 Rate Cuts for Most*:
- Four *Fed officials* now expect *NO rate cuts* in 2025, compared to just one in *December*.
- A *more cautious* stance than anticipated.

📊 *Futures Markets*:
- *56 bps of cuts* priced in for *2024*, but no major changes in expectations after this announcement.

🔻 *FOMC Median Projection*:
- Just *50 bps of cuts* in *2025*, bringing rates to *3.9%*.

🏦 *Balance-Sheet Runoff to Slow*:
- The Fed will *ease its QT* (quantitative tightening) pace starting *April 1*.
- This means less pressure on the financial markets.
⚠️ *Uncertainty on Economic Outlook*:
- The Fed is *cautious* about macro risks, increasing *economic uncertainty*.

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*🚀 Market Implications*

🔄 *Stocks & Crypto*:
- Expect *more volatility* as the market adjusts to *reduced rate-cut hopes*. Some assets may react negatively.

💵 *Dollar Strength*:
- With *higher-for-longer rates*, the *USD* could strengthen, putting pressure on global currencies.

🏦 *Bonds*:
- Bond *yields* might stay *elevated* due to slower expected cuts from the Fed.

🛢️ *Commodities*:
- *Gold* and *oil* prices could benefit from *higher inflation* expectations.

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*🤔 Will the Fed’s stance crush rate-cut hopes? Or is the market still too optimistic?*
Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇 Let’s see how the markets will react in the coming months! 💥

$FORM
$MASK
$JASMY

#Fed #Inflation #UnemploymentRate #crypto #commodities