updatealert

$BTC
Crypto Twitter lost its mind after October 6th — declaring a cycle top, calling for 84% crashes, and shouting “bear market confirmed.”
Except… the math says otherwise. Catastrophically otherwise.
Every model that nailed previous tops to the day? Completely silent.
The Pi Cycle, which triggered within days in three prior runs, hasn’t even blinked — still dormant at $114K, with its signal threshold sitting far higher at $205K.
MVRV Z-Score? Only 2.06 — far below the 5.0 euphoria level that marked every prior top.
Supply in profit stands at 83.6%.
Puell Multiple? 0.95 — classic undervaluation territory.
These aren’t broken indicators. They’re saying the same thing in unison: mid-cycle consolidation, while influencers are busy calling tops.
What Broke the Pattern
Institutions did.
Over $64 billion flowed into ETFs this year — absorbed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and corporate treasuries. Every whale dump was quietly bought up. When retail ruled cycles, emotion drove price. Now, settlement flows do.
Bitcoin’s correlation to M2 money supply — once 0.8 — has flipped negative (-0.18) in 2025.
Meanwhile, its correlation to gold exploded to 0.85.
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset — it’s a hedge.
The halving-driven four-year rhythm lost meaning the moment Wall Street entered with billions in daily liquidity.
Data shows an 0.82 correlation between institutional inflows and price stability — proof that macro absorption now drives volatility.
A 2017-style 80% crash would now require institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity dumping collateral simultaneously — a macro meltdown, not a chart pattern.
The New Market Physics
November 7th flipped six straight days of $660M outflows into $240M of inflows within 24 hours.
Institutional wallets remain 99.5% unshaken, holding through volatility that would’ve nuked retail in older cycles.
The old rulebook said cycles end when sentiment peaks.
The new rule: cycles end when inflows reverse — when ETF outflows exceed $2B weekly and a recession hits.
Neither condition exists right now.
The Data-Backed Outlook
Fidelity models a 65% probability of Bitcoin rising 50–100% by Q4 2026 — not based on hype, but on supply and flow data that never existed before.
Here’s how the next phase breaks down:
Evolved Bull (65%) – Inflows stay above $5B weekly → BTC targets $150K–$200K by late 2026
Bear Reversion (25%) – Macro shock sparks $2B+ weekly outflows → BTC revisits sub-$80K
Range Consolidation (10%) – Flat flows, DXY > 110 → BTC ranges $100K–$130K
What Would Invalidate This?
Sustained ETF outflows > $2B weekly for four straight weeks, or
Traditional indicators flipping bearish despite $5B+ inflows
Until then, the verdict is clear:
The 4-year Bitcoin cycle didn’t end — it evolved beyond recognition. Retail emotion lost control to institutional mechanics.
Time-based models broke the moment absorption dynamics took over.
Position accordingly — or watch from the sidelines.
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