$BTC near $115,394 — Can bulls defend support, or is a deeper correction next?
🔹 Current Market Situation
$BTC is trading at $115,394, down about 2.3% from yesterday’s high of $118,519. After the strong rally in the first half of August, the market has shifted into a more neutral-to-corrective phase. The current battle is being fought around the $115K–116K zone, which has become the key short-term picot
1H timeframe:
The hourly chart shows indecision. RSI oscillates around 50, confirming a balance between buyers and sellers. MACD is flat, offering no clear momentum cues. What’s more important is volume: each small decline brings slightly higher selling activity compared to bullish attempts, signaling that short-term traders are leaning toward taking profits instead of building new long positions.4H timeframe:
The 4H chart paints a broader picture of consolidation. The strong support lies at $115K–116K, which has already been tested multiple times. A bounce here would show that buyers are still defending their ground. However, repeated tests of support without a strong rebound usually increase the probability of a breakdown. Below this area, the next significant support levels are at $113K (Fib 61.8%) and then $110K — a psychological round number that often acts as a magnet during corrections.Fibonacci retracement & extension:38.2% retracement: $116,200 — a threshold bulls must reclaim to regain confidence.50% retracement: $114,500 — the balance zone; holding above keeps mid-term bullish momentum alive.61.8% retracement: $113,000 — the “golden ratio” support, a level where buyers are expected to step in aggressively.1.618 extension: $122,500 — the next bullish target if momentum returns and $120K is broken convincingly.Volume analysis:
Over the past sessions, volume patterns have leaned bearish. Red candles (selling pressure) are accompanied by visibly higher volume compared to green candles (buying activity). This suggests distribution at higher levels, with traders securing profits. For the trend to reverse back upward, bulls will need to show not only price recovery but also an expansion of buying volume, confirming real demand.
🔹 Yesterday Recap (17.08.2025)
Yesterday,
$BTC traded above $118K, reaching into resistance territory. However, the momentum faded quickly. Sellers stepped in near the upper Fibonacci retracements, and the market was pushed back into the $115K–116K support area. Importantly, the rejection was accompanied by rising volume on bearish candles, confirming that profit-taking and possibly fresh short positions dominated. This price action turned $118K into a short-term ceiling, while $115K became the battlefield for bulls to prove strength.
🔹 Forecast
The outlook for Bitcoin now depends on how the $115K–116K support behaves:
If this level holds and is followed by a rebound with increasing bullish volume, the market could stage another rally toward $118K–120K, and eventually test the 1.618 Fib extension at $122.5K.However, if the support gives way, the breakdown could accelerate selling momentum, exposing $113K first, and possibly dragging BTC toward $110K. Such a move would not necessarily end the broader bullish structure, but it would mark a deeper correction and delay another attempt at highs.
At this stage, volume remains the decisive indicator: only visible buying pressure will allow bulls to regain the initiative.
🔹 Trading Scenarios
✅ Long Scenario (Rebound Play)
Entry: $115,500–116,000Stop-Loss: $114,200Take-Profit targets:TP1: $118,000TP2: $120,000TP3: $122,500 (Fib extension 1.618)Recommendation: Consider long positions only if $116K is defended with clear bullish candles and increasing buy volume. Without volume confirmation, the risk of a false rebound is high.
❌ Short Scenario (Breakdown Play)
Entry: $114,800–115,000 (after confirmed breakdown)Stop-Loss: $116,300Take-Profit targets:TP1: $113,500TP2: $112,000TP3: $110,000Recommendation: A short setup becomes attractive only if $115K breaks with high selling volume. In that case, bears could quickly push toward $113K and below.
🔹 Summary
Bitcoin stands at a crucial decision point. The $115K–116K zone is the line in the sand: defending it could fuel another push toward $120K+, but losing it could trigger a sharper correction toward $110K. Traders should pay close attention not only to price levels but also to volume confirmation, as this will determine the strength and reliability of the next move.
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