The idea of fading the spike is valid—those kinds of impulsive moves often leave weak structure behind. The key part of your thesis is acceptance below 0.0185, which you’ve correctly marked as invalidation. That’s solid.
Where I’d push back a bit is the assumption of a smooth downside continuation. After sharp pumps, markets often don’t trend cleanly down—they tend to:
Chop in a range
Sweep both sides (liquidity grabs)
Fake breakdowns before the real move
So instead of expecting a straight bleed, think more in terms of distribution → breakdown → continuation.
What strengthens your short idea:
Lower highs forming under 0.0180–0.0185
Weak bounces (low volume, quick rejections)
Breakdown + retest of 0.0165 zone
What would invalidate or delay it:
Strong reclaim above 0.0185
Consolidation turning into a base instead of rejection
Sudden volume spike on green candles
Your TP ladder is realistic—especially TP1 and TP2. TP3 (0.0132) is achievable, but likely only if broader market sentiment supports it (BTC weakness, etc.).
If you want to refine this further, consider:
Scaling entries instead of full size at once
Taking partial profit early (TP1) to reduce risk
Watching liquidity zones below 0.015 (that’s where reactions can happen)
Overall: good directional bias, just don’t expect a straight line down.
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