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$BTC Supply Shock: The New Economics of $100K Bitcoin
Hey, everyone! Let's talk about the single most important factor driving Bitcoin's price right now: The Supply Shock. This isn't just about the Halving anymore; it’s about Wall Street's unquenchable thirst for BTC.
📈 ETF Inflows vs. Miner Output: The Daily Deficit
The Bitcoin Spot ETFs didn't just bring new capital; they brought institutional-grade, non-stop, mechanical demand. Think of it this way:
Post-Halving Supply:
Miners now generate approximately 450 new
$BTC per day. That’s the entire daily supply.
ETF Demand:
On a conservative average day, the major US ETFs (like IBIT and FBTC) absorb between 1,500 to 4,000 BTC.
What does this math tell us? We are running a daily net deficit of at least 1,000 to 3,500
$BTC that must be sold by existing long-term holders (LTHs).
This forced scarcity is why every dip is getting aggressively bought up, solidifying the $80,000 range as a new, formidable psychological floor.
🔑 Actionable Insight: Watching the Whales
Your homework:
Stop looking at short-term leverage ratios. Instead, monitor the Net Flow data for the US ETFs. A sharp, multi-day outflow could signal a brief correction, but as long as the cumulative Assets Under Management (AUM) in these funds keeps climbing, the path of least resistance for BTC is up.
The institutions are stacking, and they don't sell for a quick 10%. They are playing the decade-long game. Position accordingly.
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