🛢️ Oil Reality
Venezuela has huge reserves on paper, but most are expensive & hard to extract.
Current output ~800k bpd. Even with lifted sanctions, meaningful recovery would take 5–10 years + $60–100B.
Chevron is the only major still operating.
⚠️ Investment Risks
Poor security, broken infrastructure, legal uncertainty, political instability.
U.S. firms won’t return without payment guarantees + security.
📉 Oil Market Impact
Blockade continues: Minimal short-term impact (global supply already high).
Chaos/war: Higher geopolitical risk → bullish oil shock potential.
Peaceful transition: Long-term upside, not immediate.
🏛️ Politics
U.S. pressure via oil blockade continues.
Power transition unclear; internal resistance likely.
🌏 China Factor
China backs Maduro, funds major infrastructure, imports ~4% oil from Venezuela.
Removing Chinese influence could backfire.
🔥 Big Risk
War-game scenarios show high chance of chaos & violence after Maduro, even with a handover.
⏳ Bottom Line
Short term: Bearish to stable for Venezuela oil
Long term: Bullish only if everything goes right (low probability)
#OilMarkets #Geopolitics #venezuela #InfinityHedge #WriteToEarnUpgrade $BNB
