According to BlockBeats, QCP Capital's latest report highlights the impact of recent economic data on various markets. Following unexpectedly weak non-farm employment figures last Friday, stock futures have continued to rise. This data confirms a weakening trend in the job market since June, when a 53-month streak of employment growth was broken. The market is now betting on a 72 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, leading to a drop in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield to a yearly low.
Despite the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations boosting risk appetite in traditional markets, this sentiment has not extended to the cryptocurrency sector. While the stock market has rebounded and gold has reached new highs, cryptocurrencies have remained stable, trading sideways over the past week.
This sideways movement in the crypto market could be interpreted as a bearish signal, as indicated by a surge in demand for put options, particularly for contracts expiring in September. However, some analysts view this as a sign of resilience in crypto assets. For instance, Bitcoin has maintained its position above $110,000 despite being removed from the S&P 500 index, and Ethereum has stayed above $4,250 even with continuous outflows from spot ETFs over five days.
QCP Capital suggests that this lack of direction reflects market caution ahead of the U.S. inflation data release on Thursday. Short-term implied volatility remains high and may persist until after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is published. If inflation exceeds the expected 0.3%, it could complicate the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. Although the probability is low, the market is not unprepared for the potential impact of tariff policies.
Even if tariff policies temporarily spike the data, the current economic situation suggests a low likelihood of the Trump administration escalating trade tensions further. Therefore, unless this week's data triggers an excessive reaction, the crypto market is expected to remain well-supported in the absence of significant catalysts.
