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Trump threatens to increase tariffs on China, to be implemented on November 1
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Four Major Hard-Core Logics Confirmed, the Bull Market Has Not Ended! A-shares May Welcome a Complete Breakthrough in October
At the end of August, I shared with my friends that the market was experiencing a significant adjustment, and it was likely that we would face a phase of adjustment. From the subsequent trends, this judgment has been validated.
The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly between 3800 and 3900 points from August 25 to the end of September, a period of more than a month, with 3800 points forming a strong support and 3900 points constituting strong resistance. However, it is worth noting that the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index broke through the previous consolidation range starting from September 10, continuously setting new highs for this round of market before the end of September, and both have surpassed the high point of October 8 last year.
The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly between 3800 and 3900 points from August 25 to the end of September, a period of more than a month, with 3800 points forming a strong support and 3900 points constituting strong resistance. However, it is worth noting that the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index broke through the previous consolidation range starting from September 10, continuously setting new highs for this round of market before the end of September, and both have surpassed the high point of October 8 last year.
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US Stocks Plunge, Chinese Assets Drop! Next Week's A-shares 'Risks' or 'Opportunities' Explained
Recently, US stocks have suddenly plummeted like a 'roller coaster', dragging down our Chinese assets as well. The stockholder group exploded: Will A-shares 'collapse' next week? Or can we pick up bargains? Today, let's break it down and explain the details.
1. What logic is behind the plunge in US stocks + the sharp drop in Chinese assets?
First, let's see why US stocks plunged—
The US has been raising interest rates for almost two years, with rates skyrocketing to decades high, resulting in soaring borrowing costs for businesses and cautious spending from the public. Moreover, tech stocks had been overly hyped before (for instance, AI concepts once became bubble-like), and now that the 'bubble has burst', US stocks are directly unable to withstand it. Additionally, US economic data is 'slapping faces': inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, and employment shows signs of fatigue, raising concerns that 'the economy is about to decline', leading to a natural plunge in US stocks.
1. What logic is behind the plunge in US stocks + the sharp drop in Chinese assets?
First, let's see why US stocks plunged—
The US has been raising interest rates for almost two years, with rates skyrocketing to decades high, resulting in soaring borrowing costs for businesses and cautious spending from the public. Moreover, tech stocks had been overly hyped before (for instance, AI concepts once became bubble-like), and now that the 'bubble has burst', US stocks are directly unable to withstand it. Additionally, US economic data is 'slapping faces': inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, and employment shows signs of fatigue, raising concerns that 'the economy is about to decline', leading to a natural plunge in US stocks.
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Trump's fury leads to a 100% tariff increase on China, reigniting a doomed trade war.
An infuriated Trump suddenly announced a 100% tariff increase on China, reigniting a doomed trade war.
At 10:57 AM Eastern Time on October 10, Trump erupted on his social media platform, writing a furious thousand-word article, threatening to impose 'massive tariffs' on Chinese goods in response to China's recent comprehensive restrictions on rare earth metal exports.
Just 3 minutes later — at 11:00 AM local time, the S&P 500 index instantaneously lost $700 billion in market value. At the close of the day, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst plunge since April:
The Dow plunged 878 points, the Nasdaq crashed 820 points, a drop of 3.56%, tech stocks fell across the board, and the entire U.S. stock market evaporated $1.65 trillion.
At 10:57 AM Eastern Time on October 10, Trump erupted on his social media platform, writing a furious thousand-word article, threatening to impose 'massive tariffs' on Chinese goods in response to China's recent comprehensive restrictions on rare earth metal exports.
Just 3 minutes later — at 11:00 AM local time, the S&P 500 index instantaneously lost $700 billion in market value. At the close of the day, the U.S. stock market experienced its worst plunge since April:
The Dow plunged 878 points, the Nasdaq crashed 820 points, a drop of 3.56%, tech stocks fell across the board, and the entire U.S. stock market evaporated $1.65 trillion.
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Big Reversal, 'Shorting the Dollar' Faces Squeeze
"This is the most painful trade of the year!" exclaimed a hedge fund trader, reflecting the collective predicament of dollar bears. As of October 10, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has rebounded 2% since mid-year, while giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase still hold significant dollar short positions, turning this bet into a brutal squeeze.
The defeat of the bears began with a misjudgment of the Federal Reserve's policies. At the beginning of the year, the market crazily priced in aggressive rate cuts, even expecting two 25 basis point reductions before the end of the year, but the resilience of the U.S. labor market far exceeded expectations. Ed Al-Hussainy from Columbia Threadneedle admitted that in the absence of "pain signals" in the job market, aggressive rate cuts are simply out of the question, which forced him to urgently reduce exposure to emerging markets and turn bullish on the dollar.
The defeat of the bears began with a misjudgment of the Federal Reserve's policies. At the beginning of the year, the market crazily priced in aggressive rate cuts, even expecting two 25 basis point reductions before the end of the year, but the resilience of the U.S. labor market far exceeded expectations. Ed Al-Hussainy from Columbia Threadneedle admitted that in the absence of "pain signals" in the job market, aggressive rate cuts are simply out of the question, which forced him to urgently reduce exposure to emerging markets and turn bullish on the dollar.
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10.11 Bitcoin (BTC) Evening Trend Analysis
- Technical Analysis: The 1-hour chart shows that a bottom divergence technical indicator has just formed. Typically, after this pattern appears, if the market operates normally, there is a high probability of a price increase.
- Trading Suggestions: Wait for Bitcoin to rebound to around 111600 to establish a short position, targeting 127000; if this level is broken, then further look towards around 130000.
#广场热度值助燃心仪代币 #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期升温
- Technical Analysis: The 1-hour chart shows that a bottom divergence technical indicator has just formed. Typically, after this pattern appears, if the market operates normally, there is a high probability of a price increase.
- Trading Suggestions: Wait for Bitcoin to rebound to around 111600 to establish a short position, targeting 127000; if this level is broken, then further look towards around 130000.
#广场热度值助燃心仪代币 #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期升温
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10.11 Ethereum Evening Trend Analysis
- Technical Analysis: Hourly BOLL is narrowing, the distance between the bands is decreasing, short-term volatility is reducing; the price has moved away from the lower band support and is slightly increasing towards the middle band, bearish momentum is weakening, and bullish recovery willingness is increasing.
- Trading Suggestions: Go long on Ethereum around 3760, with a target of 3890.
- Risk Warning: The current narrowing market lacks the momentum to break through, avoid chasing the rise, and it is safer to increase positions after a clear breakout of the range.
- Technical Analysis: Hourly BOLL is narrowing, the distance between the bands is decreasing, short-term volatility is reducing; the price has moved away from the lower band support and is slightly increasing towards the middle band, bearish momentum is weakening, and bullish recovery willingness is increasing.
- Trading Suggestions: Go long on Ethereum around 3760, with a target of 3890.
- Risk Warning: The current narrowing market lacks the momentum to break through, avoid chasing the rise, and it is safer to increase positions after a clear breakout of the range.
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Lunch two cakes thinking, successfully walked out 130 points
Investment itself has no risk, uncontrolled investment has risk
Investment itself has no risk, uncontrolled investment has risk
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In just half an hour, we flipped the warehouse, this is the speed of China!
After the black swan event in the early morning, today's stock market sentiment is fluctuating, always moving sideways. This is the market that short-term traders hope to see. Watching the KDJ indicator for quick entries and exits, securing profits.
Strength is never just empty talk; it's about multiplying your gains when the market rises and protecting your profits when it falls—what you cannot obtain in returns is never luck, it's the hard strength I hold in my hands!
After the black swan event in the early morning, today's stock market sentiment is fluctuating, always moving sideways. This is the market that short-term traders hope to see. Watching the KDJ indicator for quick entries and exits, securing profits.
Strength is never just empty talk; it's about multiplying your gains when the market rises and protecting your profits when it falls—what you cannot obtain in returns is never luck, it's the hard strength I hold in my hands!
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10.11 Midday ETH Operation Analysis
- Trading Discipline: Do not chase FOMO; most seemingly opportunities are actually traps. Strict stop-loss is the key wisdom for preserving principal.
- Market Review: Bearish sentiment continued in the afternoon, with ETH falling from a high of 3831.02 in the morning to 3760.22, currently rebounding and fluctuating near 3780.
- Technical Analysis: The 4-hour level shows five consecutive bearish candles, forming a secondary bearish head-and-shoulders acceleration pattern, with a clear downtrend.
- Operating Strategy: The main bearish outlook remains unchanged; do not blindly short. After a pullback stabilizes, one may choose to go long at lower levels.
- Specific Suggestions: Place orders in the 3725-3780 range, targeting around 3900
#ETH #BTC
- Trading Discipline: Do not chase FOMO; most seemingly opportunities are actually traps. Strict stop-loss is the key wisdom for preserving principal.
- Market Review: Bearish sentiment continued in the afternoon, with ETH falling from a high of 3831.02 in the morning to 3760.22, currently rebounding and fluctuating near 3780.
- Technical Analysis: The 4-hour level shows five consecutive bearish candles, forming a secondary bearish head-and-shoulders acceleration pattern, with a clear downtrend.
- Operating Strategy: The main bearish outlook remains unchanged; do not blindly short. After a pullback stabilizes, one may choose to go long at lower levels.
- Specific Suggestions: Place orders in the 3725-3780 range, targeting around 3900
#ETH #BTC
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10.11 BTC Afternoon Analysis
BTC has experienced a pullback in the short term and is now consolidating at a small-level bottom.
Key levels:
- Support level: Focus on 111050; if it closes above this level in 1-2 hours, there is a short-term expectation for stabilization and rebound.
- Resistance level: First look at 113290; if it fails to effectively break through, it is likely to continue fluctuating downwards.
Trading suggestion: Consider placing long positions in the 110000-111500 range, targeting around 113000.
#BTC #ETH #加密市场回调
BTC has experienced a pullback in the short term and is now consolidating at a small-level bottom.
Key levels:
- Support level: Focus on 111050; if it closes above this level in 1-2 hours, there is a short-term expectation for stabilization and rebound.
- Resistance level: First look at 113290; if it fails to effectively break through, it is likely to continue fluctuating downwards.
Trading suggestion: Consider placing long positions in the 110000-111500 range, targeting around 113000.
#BTC #ETH #加密市场回调
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The US stock market plummeted due to Trump's statements on tariffs, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also saw significant corrections on Friday. The fluctuations of April's tariffs have reappeared yesterday! CICC: A few comparisons with April.
On October 10, the US stock market plummeted due to Trump's escalation of tariffs on China. Combined with the significant correction in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks on Friday, it seems that the fluctuations after the April tariff equivalence have 'reappeared yesterday.'
After the tariff equivalence on April 2, the VIX index soared to 60, and is currently at 21.7. The S&P 500 fell to the 120-week line to stabilize at that time, and the current corresponding point for the 120-week line is 5420 (17% away from the current level). The key support levels before that were 6500 and 6200. The Hang Seng Index fell to the 250-day daily line and the 60-week line to stabilize at that time, and now corresponds to around 22500 (14% away from the current level). The next key support levels are 25700 and 24500.
After the tariff equivalence on April 2, the VIX index soared to 60, and is currently at 21.7. The S&P 500 fell to the 120-week line to stabilize at that time, and the current corresponding point for the 120-week line is 5420 (17% away from the current level). The key support levels before that were 6500 and 6200. The Hang Seng Index fell to the 250-day daily line and the 60-week line to stabilize at that time, and now corresponds to around 22500 (14% away from the current level). The next key support levels are 25700 and 24500.
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China's countermeasures take effect, US stocks plummet, Trump posts long article: China has changed, he guessed right.
The most toxic words lead to the harshest blows. When he woke up, Trump found the sky had fallen; the Nobel Peace Prize he had been longing for was awarded to the reactionary Machado in Venezuela, who was also nominated and guaranteed by Rubio. However, this was not the worst part.
The most affecting his mood was China's series of countermeasures over the past two days, which left him in a dilemma. On October 10, when Trump faced reporters' inquiries, he ambiguously stated that he had just learned about China's countermeasures and had entrusted the matter to the Treasury Secretary and the Commerce Secretary to resolve.
On October 11, after China imposed special port fees on American vessels, foreign media scrambled to report, with Bloomberg pointing out that after China announced new regulations, there was a rapid chain reaction in the global logistics industry. The rental costs for dry bulk carriers transporting coal and iron ore also increased.
The most affecting his mood was China's series of countermeasures over the past two days, which left him in a dilemma. On October 10, when Trump faced reporters' inquiries, he ambiguously stated that he had just learned about China's countermeasures and had entrusted the matter to the Treasury Secretary and the Commerce Secretary to resolve.
On October 11, after China imposed special port fees on American vessels, foreign media scrambled to report, with Bloomberg pointing out that after China announced new regulations, there was a rapid chain reaction in the global logistics industry. The rental costs for dry bulk carriers transporting coal and iron ore also increased.
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The digital currency witnessed a crazy night, with 1.62 million people liquidated for a total of 19.1 billion USD overnight.
Just in the past night, the digital currency market experienced a crazy plunge, with Bitcoin dropping from 122,000 USD to a low of 101,500 USD, marking a maximum drop of 17%. Ethereum, Dogecoin, SOL, and others all fell more than 20%, with some cryptocurrencies even dropping 95%. The extreme conditions also resulted in significant losses for many participants.
In the past 24 hours, more than 1.62 million accounts globally have been liquidated, with the total liquidation amount rising to 19.1 billion USD, setting a new historical high. Among them, long positions were liquidated for 16.7 billion USD, and short positions for 2.46 billion USD.
Bitcoin once plummeted
Bitcoin plummeted through the 120,000 and 110,000 USD thresholds in one go, reaching a low of USD, currently reported at 101,516 USD per coin, with a maximum daily drop of 17%. Ethereum fell to 3,400 USD, with a 24-hour drop of 22%. Some altcoins saw declines exceeding 95%. The crypto market experienced extreme bearish conditions again, with the total market cap evaporating by over 600 billion USD in a short time.
In the past 24 hours, more than 1.62 million accounts globally have been liquidated, with the total liquidation amount rising to 19.1 billion USD, setting a new historical high. Among them, long positions were liquidated for 16.7 billion USD, and short positions for 2.46 billion USD.
Bitcoin once plummeted
Bitcoin plummeted through the 120,000 and 110,000 USD thresholds in one go, reaching a low of USD, currently reported at 101,516 USD per coin, with a maximum daily drop of 17%. Ethereum fell to 3,400 USD, with a 24-hour drop of 22%. Some altcoins saw declines exceeding 95%. The crypto market experienced extreme bearish conditions again, with the total market cap evaporating by over 600 billion USD in a short time.
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Big pancake 111722 decisively entered short, 117585 exited,
19936 oil profit, directly walking out 5863 points in hand,
Staying up all night, so what? The profit increase is glaring!
Short is still the only answer!
Short positions are more reliable than long positions!
Those who dare to follow eat meat, those who hesitate watch the show, strength speaks for itself!
This student told him to set an alarm clock, originally a profit of ten thousand points, unprecedented, was seen through by A Yi, what a pity
#广场热度值助燃心仪代币 #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调
19936 oil profit, directly walking out 5863 points in hand,
Staying up all night, so what? The profit increase is glaring!
Short is still the only answer!
Short positions are more reliable than long positions!
Those who dare to follow eat meat, those who hesitate watch the show, strength speaks for itself!
This student told him to set an alarm clock, originally a profit of ten thousand points, unprecedented, was seen through by A Yi, what a pity
#广场热度值助燃心仪代币 #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调
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October 11th ETH Market Analysis
Last night, ETH performed a 'high platform diving', plummeting from 4000 points to 3400 points, with a brief rebound during the session considered a 'dead cat bounce'; the 4000-point level is clearly under pressure.
The technical indicators are generally weakening: the hourly chart is falling along the lower Bollinger Band, with bears completely in control, and any rebound is an opportunity to short, as market panic is intense.
Operational Strategy
- Short Position Layout: 3800-3850 points range
- Core Strategy: Short on rallies, entering the market based on rebound resistance levels
Last night, ETH performed a 'high platform diving', plummeting from 4000 points to 3400 points, with a brief rebound during the session considered a 'dead cat bounce'; the 4000-point level is clearly under pressure.
The technical indicators are generally weakening: the hourly chart is falling along the lower Bollinger Band, with bears completely in control, and any rebound is an opportunity to short, as market panic is intense.
Operational Strategy
- Short Position Layout: 3800-3850 points range
- Core Strategy: Short on rallies, entering the market based on rebound resistance levels
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10.11 Pancake Analysis
There will be a brief pullback, but in the long term it will still go down
A top divergence has appeared on the four-hour chart, with prices continuously hitting new highs while technical indicators keep declining. The market outlook is strongly bearish; two sell signals have already appeared, and indeed it has dropped. Don't panic, the main force hasn't bottomed out yet and will still send out vacation signals. If it can't rise, it means the main force is gradually building positions
The market is expected to break 10000, but not in these few days. It will gradually surface in about a week. Let's wait and see.
There will be a brief pullback, but in the long term it will still go down
A top divergence has appeared on the four-hour chart, with prices continuously hitting new highs while technical indicators keep declining. The market outlook is strongly bearish; two sell signals have already appeared, and indeed it has dropped. Don't panic, the main force hasn't bottomed out yet and will still send out vacation signals. If it can't rise, it means the main force is gradually building positions
The market is expected to break 10000, but not in these few days. It will gradually surface in about a week. Let's wait and see.
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Is there anyone who hasn't slept? Many people must have had a sleepless night tonight.
In the past two days, various K lines and technical indicators have shown a bullish trend, but the market has been consistently declining at high levels, unable to break through, while the four-hour and daily charts indicate a significant bearish outlook.
Now the market has exploded! Bitcoin has failed three times in a row, with resistance firmly in place! The bulls are exhausted, and the bears are ready to strike, already taking off!
Previously, there was a significant influx of capital from the main players, but in fact, they have two accounts behind them, one for buying and one for selling. They incur some fees to achieve a profit with no investment; I have a divine prediction and have prepared for it.
Just a single wave can lead to countless liquidations, while some people profit, others hesitate and wait, only to watch their profits slip away—remember, the market is never about luck; it takes long-term, steadfast following to reap the biggest rewards! Keep that in mind.
Want to be reborn? Don't look for others; just recognize A Yi! I will help you turn things around. Are you brave enough to come?
In the past two days, various K lines and technical indicators have shown a bullish trend, but the market has been consistently declining at high levels, unable to break through, while the four-hour and daily charts indicate a significant bearish outlook.
Now the market has exploded! Bitcoin has failed three times in a row, with resistance firmly in place! The bulls are exhausted, and the bears are ready to strike, already taking off!
Previously, there was a significant influx of capital from the main players, but in fact, they have two accounts behind them, one for buying and one for selling. They incur some fees to achieve a profit with no investment; I have a divine prediction and have prepared for it.
Just a single wave can lead to countless liquidations, while some people profit, others hesitate and wait, only to watch their profits slip away—remember, the market is never about luck; it takes long-term, steadfast following to reap the biggest rewards! Keep that in mind.
Want to be reborn? Don't look for others; just recognize A Yi! I will help you turn things around. Are you brave enough to come?
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