masonnystrom

Much of the @PanteraCapital team will around NYC for Accelerate!

If you're building something cool or new on Solana we'd love to chat. My DMs are open.

Accelerate.

Prediction markets have cemented themselves as a product category. Polymarket sees consistent monthly volumes upwards of $800m, hundreds of thousands of MAUs, and millions of monthly trades.

Politics and sports are still the largest drivers of prediction market volumes on Polymarket.

But where does growth go from here? Some pathways towards prediction market growth.

1) Broader expansion of existing political markets
Political markets are still nascent, but seem widely popular. Can political markets in themselves be large exchanges.

2) New products for top traded markets
While sports betting is already fairly saturate, crypto financial products like perps can probably be applied to sports. Even parlays for election markets or longer tail markets could make payouts more interesting.

3) UGM - user generated markets
User generate markets are an untapped potential for prediction markets that can allow prediction/event markets to populate in new ways. UGC markets can expand the long tail of markets and incorporate prediction markets into social experience and live events.

4) New markets or existing market growth
Most other categories of prediction markets haven't grown that much over the past several months since prediction markets popularized. Maybe it just takes time for the new consumer behavior to substantiate. Maybe it needs other industries (e.g. science and drug trial reporting) to become more robust. Or it could just require the emergence of new markets (e.g. will Meta beat earnings this week).

I'd argue that Bitcoin trades almost entirely on monetary premium (e.g. non sovereign SoV asset).

It's clear that L1s won't trade entirely on monetary premium, but that it may account for some percentage?

What should the % monetary premium of the L1 be relative to the L1's market cap (e.g. 10% of the market cap)?

Three Big Things

Internet non-sovereign money (Bitcoin)

Internet-speed money (Stablecoins)

Internet capital markets (L1 Blockchains)

Bringing equities onchain is going to further accelerate the DeFi <> RWA Flywheel.

What are some ways DeFi will benefit in the near term?
- DeFi native interfaces will start to look like more like wholistic brokerages
- DeFi protocols can gain more mature and sustainable yields that expand their audience and bring in more capital
- More onchain financial products (e.g. Perps for equities)
- Broader asset access (e.g. more international access to US stocks, primarily through DeFi apps, wallets, crypto-neobanks)