billtheinvestor

Xinhua News Agency latest report: The brave Iranian Air Force, personally led by Hamenei without underwear, is heading to the United States to carry out bombings. Each Iranian military aircraft is carrying a barrel of oil for aerial refueling. This is the first battle for Iran's latest self-refueling warplane, which is expected to deliver a devastating blow to the United States.

After the news broke, Bitcoin instantly dropped to zero.

Xinhua News latest update: The brave Iranian Air Force, personally led by Hamenei without underwear, is heading to the United States to carry out bombings. Each Iranian military aircraft is equipped with a barrel of oil for in-air refueling. This is the first combat deployment of Iran's latest self-refueling fighter jet, and it is expected to cause devastating damage to the United States.

Following the news, Bitcoin instantly dropped to zero.

当年的滑铁卢战役，罗斯柴尔德家族情报人员在实地获得战况后快马加鞭返回伦敦，在第一时间完成债券交易发了第一笔战争大财。

今天如果有人能深入福尔多地下获得损失情况然后第一时间传递出来，将产生加密货币领域的罗斯柴尔德。

Originally, the best time to buy the dip was when it was confirmed that the Fordo nuclear facility was completely destroyed, and even when all of Iran's nuclear facilities were reset to zero. However, as distant onlookers, we cannot know such valuable information in real-time, so we can only start buying now. If we incur losses, so be it, or we can adopt a phased buying strategy. Given the current situation, the probability of Iran being able to restart its nuclear weapons is not very high, and if we can't bear this level of risk, then why buy any coins?

Grandpa Chuan hasn't started the battle yet, but the E guard has already been blown up in the warehouse😭

Will our party bring nuclear warheads on the two military planes flying to Iran? Then my wallet will really be zeroed out 😭

Possible scenarios following the Israel-Iran War:

1. Israel carries out a decapitation operation to directly send Hamas to meet their maker, leading to a regime change in Iran and a period of political chaos. The new government reaches a nuclear agreement with the U.S., completely eliminating the nuclear threat. This is likely the preferred option for the U.S. and Israel due to its low cost and low risk.
2. If the decapitation fails, the U.S. leases B2 bombers and sells bunker buster bombs to Israel to destroy the Fordow underground nuclear facility. Without the nuclear threat, Hamas naturally collapses and flees to Russia, resulting in a regime change in Iran.
3. Iran simultaneously engages in rhetoric while kneeling to seek peace to preserve its regime. However, how to maintain face while satisfying the U.S. and Israel will test Iran's talent for kneeling.
4. The U.S. directly enters the war. This approach requires a quick resolution with the principle of not affecting the U.S. economy or offending MAGA, which should be Trump's last choice.

Do you think there are other options? Regardless of which option, we might still face a final catastrophe in cryptocurrency trading.

Let AI analyze the trends of Bitcoin prices in past Middle Eastern conflicts based on available information and market observations, as well as the potential impact on Bitcoin prices if the U.S. formally intervenes in the Iran-Israel war. It is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitics, macroeconomic policies, and market sentiment, thus these analyses are merely speculations based on historical trends and the current context.
Trends of Bitcoin Prices in Past Middle Eastern Conflicts
Looking back at several major conflicts in the Middle East, the outbreak of war typically has a short-term negative impact on risk assets (such as Bitcoin), but the long-term trends may vary depending on specific events and market reactions. Here are observations based on historical data:
• 2022 Russia-Ukraine War: When the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, Bitcoin prices experienced a decline of about 10%-13%. This indicates that at the onset of significant geopolitical crises, investors tend to withdraw from high-risk assets and turn to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold or the U.S. dollar.
• October 2023 Israel-Palestine Conflict: At the start of the conflict, Bitcoin dropped about 6%, showing similar risk-averse behavior, but the decline was relatively small, possibly because the market had partially digested the tensions.
• 2024 Israel Airstrikes on Iran: This incident caused Bitcoin prices to fall by about 5.5%, reflecting the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on market confidence.
• June 2025 Iran-Israel Conflict: According to recent developments, after the conflict escalated, Bitcoin briefly dropped over 4%, hitting a low of about $103,000, before recovering to the $106,000-$107,000 range. This indicates that the market's reaction to the current situation is quite complex, facing selling pressure in the short term, but without a full-blown panic.
Overall, at the onset of large-scale wars, Bitcoin as a risk asset typically faces selling pressure, with declines ranging from 4%-13%, depending on the magnitude of the conflict and the stability of the global economic environment. Subsequently, the market may rebound based on the situation's developments (e.g., whether the war ends quickly or escalates), especially when Bitcoin is seen as 'digital gold', which may attract safe-haven funds.
Potential Impact of U.S. Formal Intervention in the Iran-Israel War on Bitcoin Prices
If the U.S. formally intervenes in the Iran-Israel war (for example, through military action or full support for Israel), Bitcoin prices may be influenced by the following factors:
1. Short-term Decline Risk:
◦ U.S. intervention is usually seen as a signal of conflict escalation, which may exacerbate global market uncertainty. Historical data indicates that significant international intervention (such as direct U.S. military involvement) often leads to further pressure on risk assets. Based on previous Middle Eastern conflict experiences, Bitcoin may face an additional decline of 5%-10%, potentially dropping below $100,000, approaching the $95,000-$100,000 range.
◦ Market sentiment may shift towards traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold, currently priced around $3,400/ounce, and oil prices rising about 6% due to tensions), weakening Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative.
2. Mid-term Volatility and Divergence:
◦ If U.S. intervention leads to a swift end to the war (e.g., the collapse of the Iranian regime or the conflict being controlled), Bitcoin may rebound, with increases potentially reaching 10%-15%, returning above $110,000. This is because the market may view the prospects for peace as positive, attracting risk capital again.
◦ Conversely, if the war escalates into a long-term conflict or affects the global supply chain (such as oil supply disruptions), Bitcoin may face more significant adjustments, potentially falling below $90,000, especially against the backdrop of Fed rate hikes or heightened inflation.
3. Long-term Potential Opportunities:
◦ Some market views suggest that geopolitical turmoil may enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized asset, particularly in the context of losing faith in traditional financial systems. If U.S. intervention raises questions about dollar hegemony, Bitcoin could become a safe-haven asset in the long term, with prices gradually recovering and breaking historical highs.
◦ However, this depends on the global economic environment and policy responses, such as whether the Fed maintains or tightens monetary policy.
Key Variables and Uncertainties
• Trump's Decisions: The current direction of U.S. policy may be determined by leadership. If the intervention primarily involves limited military actions, the impact may be smaller; if it escalates to full-scale war, market panic could intensify.
• Market Leverage Levels: Recent data indicates an increase in Bitcoin's open contracts, with concentrated leverage potentially leading to liquidation risks (such as over $1.1 billion liquidated in the past 24 hours), amplifying price volatility.
• Performance of Other Assets: The movements of gold and oil prices will compete with Bitcoin; if safe-haven funds lean more towards these traditional assets, Bitcoin may face pressure.
Summary
Historical trends show that at the onset of large-scale wars in the Middle East, Bitcoin prices typically decline by 4%-13%, depending on the severity of the conflict. If the U.S. formally intervenes in the Iran-Israel war, Bitcoin may further decline by 5%-10% in the short term, dropping to the $95,000-$100,000 range; if the war ends swiftly, it may rebound above $110,000; if it escalates into a long-term conflict, falling below $90,000 is also possible. In the long term, Bitcoin's trajectory will depend on changes in global economic policy and confidence in the dollar.
Due to the complex geopolitical situation and potentially incomplete information, these predictions carry a high degree of uncertainty. It is recommended to pay attention to real-time news and market data to adjust judgments. Would you like me to further search for the latest developments or generate a price trend chart?

The biggest factor affecting cryptocurrency prices is undoubtedly war, with the current focus on the Iran conflict.

If the war escalates to impact the U.S. economy, Bitcoin could drop below 102,000;
If the war ends quickly and Iran disintegrates, Bitcoin will rapidly rebound above 110,000.

The most important force influencing the outcome is Trump's decision: whether to intervene directly, and if so, in what manner.

Gambling enthusiasts have bet that the probability of U.S. intervention in the war before July is 33%, with the most likely scenario being:

Hamas, in order to maintain its leadership position in the Islamic world against America and Israel, continues to attack Israel and further targets U.S. military facilities. Trump seizes an opportunity to deploy B2 bombers carrying GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs to completely destroy the Fordow underground nuclear facility, ensuring that the Middle East and Israel can enjoy peace for at least several decades, while simultaneously preserving Hamas's ruling position. This can maintain a balance of terror in the Middle East to facilitate arms sales.

If this scenario occurs, it is crucial to ensure that the attack concludes quickly to avoid the impact of soaring oil prices on U.S. inflation.

Trump has suffered significant setbacks in the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-China trade war, and urgently needs a boost. Iran is most likely to become the sacrificial lamb, as they are at their most vulnerable after continuous attacks from Israel, making them an easier target.

The impact on Bitcoin could lead to another wave of panic selling, which may harm the bulls.

Iran's weapons will run out in a week to a month at most, and China and Russia are unable to quickly replenish their weaponry and ammunition at this time.

Binance's Alpha airdrop only has so little money, and often comes with a crash game. Why do so many people sing praises for them every day?

Today:

Mr. Chuan is going to hold a military parade,
Iran will continue to bomb,
Israel starts bombing energy,
Big protests in the United States,
Democratic judges are assassinated,
...

In this tumultuous autumn, the cryptocurrency world suffers first, run quickly

My current investment principles:

1. Only engage in high-leverage contract trading
2. Trade in both long and short directions simultaneously
3. Only trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL
4. Do not look at any technical analysis
5. Do not look at any economic data and analysis
6. Purely observe the bets of the bystanders

I'm sorry, I'm going to zero out again, please don't learn from me.

After today's artillery fire from Israel, all the bulls have been wiped out, and if the bears don't run, they will be quickly caught in a net. How fast? Let's see the US stock market tomorrow.

Making a fortune from war is the fastest in the cryptocurrency circle:

Forecast for war: Short
Forecast end: Long

Rapid wealth accumulation that surpasses everything else

The most important ability to survive in the cryptocurrency world is not analyzing candlestick charts or macroeconomic data, but rather analyzing what shocking moves Grandpa Chuan will make next.

The likelihood of Israel's military action against Iran before July has increased to 46% based on the following facts:

1. On June 8, at the Camp David meeting, Trump convened key cabinet members and military leaders.
2. Evacuation plans have begun in the Middle East.
3. Gold prices have surged.

Given the historical pattern that when the big guns in the Middle East fire, the cryptocurrency wallets tend to shrink first, everyone should take preventive measures.

The likelihood of Israeli military action against Iran increased to 46% before July based on the following facts:

1. At the Camp David meeting on June 8, Trump gathered key cabinet members and military leaders.
2. Evacuation plans began in the Middle East.
3. Gold prices surged.

Given the historical pattern of the Middle East, where military engagements often lead to immediate impacts on cryptocurrency wallets, everyone should take precautionary measures.

What impact would a U.S./Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities have on Bitcoin in the coming days? Gold has quietly diverged from Bitcoin.

The ones trading coins are actually primitive people, holding stones and learning to count.

As the most mature city for blockchain development in China, Hangzhou has already formed an industrial chain across various blockchain sectors. On one side are high-profile entities such as government industrial support funds, blockchain industrial parks, and leading companies in mining chip production like Canaan. On the other side are numerous startups and individuals operating in gray areas, often becoming key targets for the lower-tier law enforcement in China. In previous years, they employed tactics of posing as players to infiltrate various projects and gather detailed information about project initiators before executing pinpoint harvesting. Now, they have shifted to a method of thorough investigation, waiting to 'fatten the pigs' before slaughtering them. It is advised that all professionals in Hangzhou remain vigilant of everyone, especially those who present themselves as industry tycoons, KOLs, or investors, as they often turn out to be the ultimate harvesters of your profits.

The harvesting of people in the cryptocurrency circle does not follow normal legal procedures; typically, it follows the national security line, making regulations such as maximum detention times inapplicable. Victims usually have to endure a harrowing key coercion process that feels worse than death. Those who manage to withstand this will then face a process involving bargaining with alleged 'big bosses' and threats to their families until the bandits arrive at an acceptable price.

Running to Southeast Asia is futile; as long as the amounts are significant, almost all countries, except Singapore, will lead to immediate arrest.

Stay low-key, trust no one, and hiding wealth is the basic survival strategy in this industry.