I’ve got wrecked on ETH because most breakouts fail.
Macro now confirms the slow-hand approach.
Global M2 liquidity is still the easiest, dumbest north star for crypto: when M2 turns up, Bitcoin follows, and ETH eventually rides.
Ignore it and you chase tops; front-run it and you’re early.
So the distilled framework is: respect ETH’s range until it proves otherwise, watch M2 for the real macro trigger, and position early in decentralized AI infra.
Nvidia tripled its valuation in 18 months, and VCs are showering every LLM startup. The stack is still painfully centralized. If regulators tighten the screws on the hyperscalers, capital has to rotate somewhere and open, permissionless infra starts looking like the only real alternative.
So the playbook is simple, if not sexy:
• Trade ETH like the range it is, not the breakout you wish it were.
• Track global M2; it’s still the North Star for risk.
• Accumulate the infra that will matter when AI capital finally hunts for open rails.
How you can front-run the crowd with a repeatable framework👇🧵
Wild split in how the market values stablecoin revs 👀
Circle $CRCL opened at a ~$32B EV → 34.8x ’25 net rev.
If $COIN keeps its ~53.5% cut of reserve income, that’s ~$1.29B in revs → implies $44.9B of COIN’s $60.5B EV is just from USDC.
That means the rest of Coinbase is trading at <2.5x net rev, below tradfi.
So either: https://t.co/d8DBT7wAkZ demand for non-stablecoin crypto biz, https://t.co/OLMGS4RgmH’s valuation is way too rich, 3.Or $COIN is due for a major re-rate.
I've been completing tasks on Kite AI's testnet and if you're farming airdrops, you might want to look at this.
Their Aero Testnet had 7M+ users. 845M+ AI agent calls. 1,500TB of data processed. 200K+ datasets onboarded.
Proof of Attributed Intelligence (PoAI), redirects value flows in the AI economy.
@GoKiteAI is the first blockchain Layer 1 purpose-built for AI with @avax.
Kite AI is building a blockchain Layer 1 purpose-built for autonomous AI agents, where bots can act, pay, and interact without human intervention.
This agentic infrastructure includes native tools for identity, smart payments, and programmable governance, allowing agents to operate safely and independently across digital environments.
It’s the foundation for a new economy powered by machine intelligence, where agents don’t just analyze data, they do things: negotiate contracts, manage assets, deliver services, and coordinate with other agents in real-time.
So, what’s different about the Ozone Testnet?
It’s a gamified economy where every action moves you closer to rewards:
• Claim test tokens • Stake in subnets @BitMindAI & @BitteProtocol (coming soon) • Complete quizzes and social tasks • Interact with AI agents • Mint exclusive NFTs
Every action earns XP and boosts your rank toward a potential future airdrop 👀
And if you were part of Aero? Your points are preserved
I am entering the first IDO on Sonic: 5000% APY, sub 900k FDV, fairlaunch no VC and the first “on-chain AI” play.
We'll see the first 100x AI play on Sonic.
Farming live from day 1. xAQUA stakers get yield and 1% of $SYNAP. 6% of rev share for $AQUA holders.
I believe this IDO has legs, one with a very tight flywheel. 👇
Fundamentals first • TGE window: 31 May 15:00 UTC → 4 June 15:00 UTC • Token Supply for IDO: 15 % (70 % liquid $AQUA, 30 % escrowed $xAQUA) • Starting Price: 1.067 $S ≈ $0.50 → FDV ≈ $930k
Here is what makes it attractive • 100k $xAQUA mining pool live block-zero • 2% ref-fee rebate for bringing fresh buyers • 10% GEMS airdrop for all contributors • 1% of $SYNAP routed to Trident Vaults for $xAQUA stakers • Add 6 % platform-revenue share for $AQUA holders
The bigger flywheel Launchpad → Algebra V4 DEX → Treasures / Trident Vaults. New tokens list immediately where the IDO happened, fees loop back to stakers, and TVL recirculates. Sonic’s 90 % FeeM rebate + 1.905 B $S airdrop prime the pump.
Token-economic analysis $xAQUA is non-transferable, GMX-style escrow. Rewards come 70 % $xAQUA / 30 % $AQUA, damping mercenary exit risk, but inflation is real unless burn or buy-back kicks in.
Lately, I’ve been watching one chart on repeat: M2 vs. TOTAL3 (minus 12 weeks).
If history rhymes (and it often does) then this setup could validate my cautious bullishness on alts.
But here’s what really caught my attention lately:
1) Bitcoin’s 60-day correlation to U.S. 10Y Treasury Futures just hit an all-time low.
Smart money may be quietly rotating out of bonds and into Bitcoin. For those watching macro flows, this could be the chart to keep on your radar.
2) For almost two years, VIX futures lived in a compression channel, a dream for risk-on traders.
Here’s what I see:
- VIX broke trend and is riding a steep ascending channel - Systemic volatility being repriced - MOVE (bond market VIX) never cooled, rates are now amplifying equity stress - We’ve officially entered a new volatility regime
We’re seeing:
Structural vol shift—traders still expect 2020-style spikes/reversions, but we’re stair-stepping like 2007–08.
Liquidity is behavioral now—hedge fund beta at decade highs. One vol pop = cascade of exits = no liquidity.
Geopolitical stress—Tariffs, sanctions, capital controls, and intentional uncertainty are now policy tools.
Bottom line:
If VIX holds this steep channel, risk premia across all assets need to be repriced. That means: Lower equity valuations, Higher tail risk, Tighter liquidity, A systemic re-rating of what “risk-free” means.
3) Sovereign duration risk is being repriced
This is about structural trust in sovereign balance sheets.
- Rising real yields = markets demanding more for long-term risk - Policy paralysis = central banks stuck between inflation and asset collapse - Capital repatriation risk = if Japan loses control, global outflows reverse - We’re entering a regime where long-duration debt behaves like a risk asset.
And that should terrify anyone clinging to outdated models.👇🧵
A $600k whale aped into this gem that sits at a sub-$300K MC with a live product that is already revenue-generating $1K MRR, $50K+ total sales.
It auto-generates & schedules short-form videos for YouTube/TikTok.
Betting on the upside narrative (AI + creator economy + Solana) being the obvious play.
Below is my thesis on why this will easily accelerate to $5M MC👇
Growth for $FACELESS is going to get a new lift. They are rolling out an affiliate and referral program modeled after @AxiomExchange and @bullx_io and here are some near term catalysts: 1. Token-gated payments → recurring buy pressure if real users migrate. 2. Affiliate programme → grassroots shilling without CEX fees. 3. LaunchCoin fair-launch slot → lateral liquidity from the SOL degen funnel.
Tools such as AutoShorts ai and Faceless already boast 10K+ daily active users, tapping the same impulse: turn text into monetizable Shorts while you sleep.
$FACELESS aims to capture that demand natively in crypto: • Input sources – blog URLs, Subreddits, or free-form prompts • Output – edited vertical clips + auto-posting at preset times • Paywall – subscription today; token-based credits coming “this week” (per team)
The dev, @Pushpit07, is a 7 time hackathon winner and a recognized Polygon Dev Advocate and Chainlink.
A $600k whale aped into this gem that sits at a sub-$300K MC with a live product that is already revenue-generating $1K MRR, $50K+ total sales.
It auto-generates & schedules short-form videos for YouTube/TikTok.
Betting on the upside narrative (AI + creator economy + Solana) being the obvious play.
Below is my thesis on why this will easily accelerate to $5M MC👇
Growth for $FACELESS is going to get a new lift. They are rolling out an affiliate and referral program modeled after @AxiomExchange and @bullx_io and here are some near term catalysts: 1. Token-gated payments → recurring buy pressure if real users migrate. 2. Affiliate programme → grassroots shilling without CEX fees. 3. LaunchCoin fair-launch slot → lateral liquidity from the SOL degen funnel.
Tools such as AutoShorts ai and Faceless already boast 10K+ daily active users, tapping the same impulse: turn text into monetizable Shorts while you sleep.
$FACELESS aims to capture that demand natively in crypto: • Input sources – blog URLs, Subreddits, or free-form prompts • Output – edited vertical clips + auto-posting at preset times • Paywall – subscription today; token-based credits coming “this week” (per team)
The dev, @Pushpit07, is a 7 time hackathon winner and a recognized Polygon Dev Advocate and Chainlink.