It is expected that there is a high probability of a rate cut in September, and a certain probability of two rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Lao Bao is talking about his personal opinion.
After mid-June, it basically began to unify: there will be no more than two rate cuts this year. Because the market is eager for rate cuts and expectations for rate cuts are high, in order to release market risks, the Federal Reserve has recently frequently expressed a hawkish attitude. In order to avoid the gap between the results and market expectations, the market loses confidence in the US dollar.
Since 19, especially in the three years of the epidemic, the United States has been printing money crazily. Due to the unilateral world pattern since World War II, most of the US dollars have flowed out of the country, so the impact on the domestic market is relatively small. With the emergence of the multilateral pattern this year and the weakening of the world economy, a large amount of overseas US dollars have flowed into the United States. Although the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times, its domestic inflation has not improved significantly.