1⃣Has the bull market ended? If not, what stage of the bull market are we in now?
It is not over yet, and is currently in the transition stage from the middle stage to the late stage.
The argument comes from the latest tweet from legendary short trader GCR, who believes we are still in a bull market.
The price of Bitcoin has broken through its historical high this year, reaching $73,000 at one point. It is currently fluctuating around $64,000, and the price gap from the peak of the previous bull market is only $5,000. Judging from the price, the current market is definitely a bull market for Bitcoin.
According to a research report by 10× Reseach, among the 115 altcoins they analyzed, most of the tokens have fallen by 50% compared to their 2024 price highs, while the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen by 11% and 13% respectively from their 24-year price highs, so the sharp decline in altcoins can be called an altcoin bear market.
I think there will be a big wave of market in Q4 (fourth quarter) of this year, followed by the end of the bull market, and the bull market will most likely turn into a bear market in the middle of 2025.
2⃣What are the factors driving this bull market?
-The launch of Bitcoin spot ETF (core element) has promoted the inflow of institutional funds into the market
- Bitcoin halving
- Improved macro liquidity
- Bitcoin's own innovation drives ecological development
3⃣What are the differences between this bull market and previous cycles?
There are two main differences:
-Serious lack of liquidity, Bitcoin spot ETF funds cannot overflow
-The retail value consensus has shifted. The reason behind this is that more and more new projects and high FDV and low liquidity projects have dispersed and drained the liquidity of the market, leading to retail investors embracing memecoin
4⃣Who is making money in this cycle?
Referring to the tweet of Dashan, the boss of Waterdrop Capital, he believes that neither retail investors nor VCs made money in this bull market, but the following five groups made money:
-Bitcoin Holder (represented by MicroStrategy)
-CEX (represented by Binance)
-Cefi platform (represented by Tether)
- Head public chain and Defi protocol
- Project parties that rely on high FDV to cash out/sell nodes
5⃣ Subsequent market forecast and operation strategy
The crypto market will see a big rally in Q4 this year, supported by the following arguments:
-US November election (political influence encryption)
- The Fed's first rate cut in 2024
-CZ's release
-Bitcoin market in the six months after halving
-The official launch of Ethereum spot ETF
Operation strategy:
Protect your principal if you are trapped
-Holding high-quality quilts can lie flat
- If you are stuck holding junk stocks, consider selling at a loss and switching to high-quality stocks
There may be some phenomenal projects emerging during the market freezing point. Reduce the frequency of operations, pay attention to market dynamics, do more zero-cost interactions, allocate high-quality assets at a low gradient, protect the principal and remain patient, waiting for the arrival of Q4.
