After just two days of consolidation, many people are now fearfully asking if the bull market has already ended?
History does not repeat itself, but it is strikingly similar every time. Let's talk about historical data. Based on the past three cycles of data, Bitcoin reaches its peak 1-1.5 years after each halving. Today there are only 3 days left until the halving, and the halving hasn't even started yet. Those who claim the bull market is over can be regarded as helpless victims. This cycle not only includes the Bitcoin halving, but also the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and unlimited buying of spot ETFs; how could the current bull market possibly be over? Those who can't hold on for two or three days of consolidation should quickly exit the market, otherwise they will only incur greater losses; every pullback is a good buying opportunity.
From the data in the table below, we can see that in the first cycle, the price increased 88.23 times from the day of the halving to the peak, in the second cycle it was 30.56 times, and in the third cycle it was 7.87 times. Based on this historical data, we infer that the price increase from halving to peak in this cycle is 7.87/(88.23/30.56 + 30.56/7.87) * 2 = 2.325 times. If the price is $65,000 three days after the halving, then the peak of this cycle should be around $151,000.
However, this cycle is quite special as it coincides with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, so I will simply predict that the peak BTC price in this cycle will be between $140,000 and $200,000, with the peak occurring approximately (367 + 523 + 544)/3 = 478 days after the halving, which is around August 2025.
Looking forward to completing this table together in a little over a year.
