#理财思维 #KOSPI大涨6.63%重返6000点
“A memory chip shortage until 2030”—the start of an endless boom?
$SKHY
You haven’t truly understood SK Hynix’s “100-trillion-won” earnings report until you grasp these three points
Set aside market sentiment and get back to industry fundamentals. To know what determines how much is at stake, you need to understand these three objective facts:
1. The shortage isn’t because people are buying too much—it’s because production is too slow
Building advanced packaging facilities and wafer fabs takes an extraordinarily long time. The physical limits of equipment mean capacity simply can’t keep up with the growth in computing power. This “physical bottleneck” has driven Hynix’s short-term windfall profits, but it has also exposed the fragility of the entire tech supply chain.
2. The spending spree on capital investment will inevitably be followed by a cyclical reckoning
There has never been a “feast that never ends” in the history of semiconductors. When everyone is shouting that results are “off the charts,” it’s often just before companies’ capital spending peaks. History tells us that when cyclical stocks are reporting their most spectacular results, that’s precisely when we should remain mindful of long-term risks.
Fact 3: The ones who truly win with little effort are further upstream
To expand capacity and meet demand, Hynix has to spend tens of billions of dollars on equipment. No matter how fierce competition gets downstream or how the cycle turns, major upstream equipment suppliers are always there, reliably collecting tolls.
“A memory chip shortage until 2030”—the start of an endless boom?
$SKHY
You haven’t truly understood SK Hynix’s “100-trillion-won” earnings report until you grasp these three points
Set aside market sentiment and get back to industry fundamentals. To know what determines how much is at stake, you need to understand these three objective facts:
1. The shortage isn’t because people are buying too much—it’s because production is too slow
Building advanced packaging facilities and wafer fabs takes an extraordinarily long time. The physical limits of equipment mean capacity simply can’t keep up with the growth in computing power. This “physical bottleneck” has driven Hynix’s short-term windfall profits, but it has also exposed the fragility of the entire tech supply chain.
2. The spending spree on capital investment will inevitably be followed by a cyclical reckoning
There has never been a “feast that never ends” in the history of semiconductors. When everyone is shouting that results are “off the charts,” it’s often just before companies’ capital spending peaks. History tells us that when cyclical stocks are reporting their most spectacular results, that’s precisely when we should remain mindful of long-term risks.
Fact 3: The ones who truly win with little effort are further upstream
To expand capacity and meet demand, Hynix has to spend tens of billions of dollars on equipment. No matter how fierce competition gets downstream or how the cycle turns, major upstream equipment suppliers are always there, reliably collecting tolls.
