Yesterday, I said this APT unlock was “good news for the supply side.” Twenty-four hours later, the market slapped me in the face.
First, here’s what happened: At 4 a.m. Beijing time on October 12, 11.31 million APT tokens were unlocked right on schedule, representing about 0.64% of the circulating supply. The allocation: 3.21 million to the community, 3.96 million to core contributors, 1.33 million to the foundation, and 2.81 million to investors.
After the unlock, APT is trading at around $0.83, down about 10% over 24 hours.
Looking back, here’s where my analysis went wrong:
First, the unlock on the 12th of every month is a mechanical event. Core contributors and investors are set to receive nearly 6.8 million tokens in total, and they’ve always had an incentive to cash out in the short term. The “monthly release dropping from 11.31 million to 4.54 million” is good news that only takes effect in November. Those 11.31 million tokens in October were actually delivered, and the selling pressure arrived before the good news had a chance to play out.
Second, history had already given us the answer: APT rose 3.6% in the 24 hours after the April unlock, then fell 7.8% after the May unlock. Unlocks have never meant a one-way move. The direction depends on sentiment on the day of the unlock and the broader market—not the calendar.
So what should we watch next? Two trigger conditions:
① If APT stabilizes above $0.80, and the foundation’s 210 million tokens are permanently locked and staked, the supply-tightening thesis still holds. This drop would then be emotional selling pressure on the unlock date.
② If it breaks below $0.80 on rising volume, that suggests short-term selling pressure hasn’t run its course, and weakness could continue until before the November unlock.
Put simply, when trading around unlock events, you’re betting on “sentiment,” not the “calendar.” Those who bought yesterday based on the “good news is here” narrative are probably underwater today.
Have you ever traded around an unlock event? How did it go? Let’s talk in the comments.
I’ll keep following these unlocks and reviewing what happens. Follow me to stay in the loop.
$APT
#TokenUnlock
Data as of: 2026-10-12 17:40 UTC
Sources: cointime.ai (Token Unlocks data); beincrypto; exchange market data
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.
First, here’s what happened: At 4 a.m. Beijing time on October 12, 11.31 million APT tokens were unlocked right on schedule, representing about 0.64% of the circulating supply. The allocation: 3.21 million to the community, 3.96 million to core contributors, 1.33 million to the foundation, and 2.81 million to investors.
After the unlock, APT is trading at around $0.83, down about 10% over 24 hours.
Looking back, here’s where my analysis went wrong:
First, the unlock on the 12th of every month is a mechanical event. Core contributors and investors are set to receive nearly 6.8 million tokens in total, and they’ve always had an incentive to cash out in the short term. The “monthly release dropping from 11.31 million to 4.54 million” is good news that only takes effect in November. Those 11.31 million tokens in October were actually delivered, and the selling pressure arrived before the good news had a chance to play out.
Second, history had already given us the answer: APT rose 3.6% in the 24 hours after the April unlock, then fell 7.8% after the May unlock. Unlocks have never meant a one-way move. The direction depends on sentiment on the day of the unlock and the broader market—not the calendar.
So what should we watch next? Two trigger conditions:
① If APT stabilizes above $0.80, and the foundation’s 210 million tokens are permanently locked and staked, the supply-tightening thesis still holds. This drop would then be emotional selling pressure on the unlock date.
② If it breaks below $0.80 on rising volume, that suggests short-term selling pressure hasn’t run its course, and weakness could continue until before the November unlock.
Put simply, when trading around unlock events, you’re betting on “sentiment,” not the “calendar.” Those who bought yesterday based on the “good news is here” narrative are probably underwater today.
Have you ever traded around an unlock event? How did it go? Let’s talk in the comments.
I’ll keep following these unlocks and reviewing what happens. Follow me to stay in the loop.
$APT
#TokenUnlock
Data as of: 2026-10-12 17:40 UTC
Sources: cointime.ai (Token Unlocks data); beincrypto; exchange market data
For informational purposes only; not investment advice.