$50K market, and this guy’s backing the underdogs
Trading volume in Polymarket’s League of Legends championship-winner market is nearing $500,000. Chinese trader Anjun has made 2,011 trades in the LOL market, with a 46% win rate and $74,000 in profit. By another count, he has 537 trades, a 42% win rate, and $264,900 in profit. He’s now holding positions on Gen.G, HLE, and G2 to win the title, plus a position on “T1 not to win.”
He’s making money despite a win rate below 50% by picking long shots with just a 5.3% probability, putting in 1.65 to 2.82 times the median stake—one win can make up for ten losses. G2 is priced at just 5%, while T1 has been bid up to 17%; he’s using positions in the opposite direction to hedge against the emotional premium. Gen.G leads at 32.5%, with BLG at 19%. He hasn’t taken large positions in the two most expensive tiers of the market.
The biggest opportunity in this market is on the “T1 not to win” side. The final will settle it on November 14. Would you dare to follow this guy and bet against T1?
$POL $ETH $ARB
#Polymarket #PredictionMarket
Trading volume in Polymarket’s League of Legends championship-winner market is nearing $500,000. Chinese trader Anjun has made 2,011 trades in the LOL market, with a 46% win rate and $74,000 in profit. By another count, he has 537 trades, a 42% win rate, and $264,900 in profit. He’s now holding positions on Gen.G, HLE, and G2 to win the title, plus a position on “T1 not to win.”
He’s making money despite a win rate below 50% by picking long shots with just a 5.3% probability, putting in 1.65 to 2.82 times the median stake—one win can make up for ten losses. G2 is priced at just 5%, while T1 has been bid up to 17%; he’s using positions in the opposite direction to hedge against the emotional premium. Gen.G leads at 32.5%, with BLG at 19%. He hasn’t taken large positions in the two most expensive tiers of the market.
The biggest opportunity in this market is on the “T1 not to win” side. The final will settle it on November 14. Would you dare to follow this guy and bet against T1?
$POL $ETH $ARB
#Polymarket #PredictionMarket