Oil prices are about to touch $100, and $BTC is dozing off right next to it.
This round of tensions between the US and Iran has completely reignited crude oil: Brent jumped to $97.31, hitting a six-week high. Iran has marked a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Aramco facilities were targeted again. Trump says that once the US “wins,” oil prices will fall back to $2 per gallon—but do you believe that? In any case, Goldman Sachs has already raised its 2026 oil price forecast by $5, and in extreme scenarios it even sees $120.
What’s even more interesting is where the safe-haven funds are going. The People’s Bank of China added about 20 tons of gold in August, continuing its streak of buying for 22 straight months—setting a record for the single month within this cycle. Traditional capital is rushing into gold, but this time $BTC hasn’t picked up the safe-haven storyline. As soon as fighting broke out in the Middle East, it actually slid—at moments of crisis, it’s still being treated as a risk asset. That’s pretty painful.
On-chain side, it hasn’t been calm over the weekend either: $STX is pushing for self-custody BTC staking, $INJ went live on Robinhood, and Blockstream’s Liquid network had “white hats” withdraw 4,000 BTC.
The key this week is CPI and PPI. With oil already surging like this, inflation data likely won’t look good. If the numbers blow out, risk assets will probably get hit again. For the short term, I lean toward staying on the sidelines—don’t take a flying knife between artillery fire and surprise inflation prints.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #中东局势 #原油 #通胀数据
This round of tensions between the US and Iran has completely reignited crude oil: Brent jumped to $97.31, hitting a six-week high. Iran has marked a restricted zone in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Aramco facilities were targeted again. Trump says that once the US “wins,” oil prices will fall back to $2 per gallon—but do you believe that? In any case, Goldman Sachs has already raised its 2026 oil price forecast by $5, and in extreme scenarios it even sees $120.
What’s even more interesting is where the safe-haven funds are going. The People’s Bank of China added about 20 tons of gold in August, continuing its streak of buying for 22 straight months—setting a record for the single month within this cycle. Traditional capital is rushing into gold, but this time $BTC hasn’t picked up the safe-haven storyline. As soon as fighting broke out in the Middle East, it actually slid—at moments of crisis, it’s still being treated as a risk asset. That’s pretty painful.
On-chain side, it hasn’t been calm over the weekend either: $STX is pushing for self-custody BTC staking, $INJ went live on Robinhood, and Blockstream’s Liquid network had “white hats” withdraw 4,000 BTC.
The key this week is CPI and PPI. With oil already surging like this, inflation data likely won’t look good. If the numbers blow out, risk assets will probably get hit again. For the short term, I lean toward staying on the sidelines—don’t take a flying knife between artillery fire and surprise inflation prints.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #BTC #中东局势 #原油 #通胀数据