US Treasury yields rise—why hasn’t BTC faced obvious pressure like gold?
In the latest market observations, an unusual signal stands out: BTC’s 90-day return correlation with gold is about 0.59, but its correlation with the yield on US 10-year Treasuries is only around -0.17, significantly weaker than gold’s roughly -0.41.
This doesn’t mean BTC has already detached from the macro picture; rather, it suggests that in BTC’s pricing, there may be more capital flows and supply-demand factors specific to the crypto market. For now, focus on three areas:
First, when Treasury yields continue climbing, will BTC play catch-up and fall?
Second, can BTC hold near the $80,000 level?
Third, can ongoing inflows into ETFs offset macro headwinds?
If BTC truly can withstand interest-rate shocks better than gold, the market’s “risk asset” pricing for it may be changing. If it’s only a short-term divergence, the next macro data release will provide the answer. Do you think BTC is decoupling, or is it just reacting a bit late?
$BTC $ETH
In the latest market observations, an unusual signal stands out: BTC’s 90-day return correlation with gold is about 0.59, but its correlation with the yield on US 10-year Treasuries is only around -0.17, significantly weaker than gold’s roughly -0.41.
This doesn’t mean BTC has already detached from the macro picture; rather, it suggests that in BTC’s pricing, there may be more capital flows and supply-demand factors specific to the crypto market. For now, focus on three areas:
First, when Treasury yields continue climbing, will BTC play catch-up and fall?
Second, can BTC hold near the $80,000 level?
Third, can ongoing inflows into ETFs offset macro headwinds?
If BTC truly can withstand interest-rate shocks better than gold, the market’s “risk asset” pricing for it may be changing. If it’s only a short-term divergence, the next macro data release will provide the answer. Do you think BTC is decoupling, or is it just reacting a bit late?
$BTC $ETH