95.69, just one step away from the 24-hour high of 95.97, but this step was not taken by the bulls — open interest was cut by 5.57% in one day. Prices are rising while positions are being unwound; this surge looks like a short-covering firework display, not new money coming in to buy.
The biggest risk for a short-covering rally is running out of fuel. Open interest shrank 5.57% in a day, yet the price climbed from 91.6 to 95.96. The driving force came entirely from short covering, not long additions. Once the covering stops, the bids disappear.
The order book is also leaking on the downside: aggressive sell volume in futures is 2.4 times buy volume, and the 20-level sell wall at 2,538 contracts is pressing against 2,236 contracts on the bid side; funding rates have gone back to zero and are sitting below the 8-period average. Even with the price near the highs, no longs are willing to pay a premium.
So I’m not betting on a breakout; I’m betting on a pullback. The short-covering move should run out of steam at 95.97, and below that, I’ll first watch whether 94 can hold. If open interest shifts from shrinking to expanding, aggressive buying overtakes selling, and funding turns positive and holds above the new high, then that would be a real breakout — and I’d turn bullish immediately. #intc $INTC
The biggest risk for a short-covering rally is running out of fuel. Open interest shrank 5.57% in a day, yet the price climbed from 91.6 to 95.96. The driving force came entirely from short covering, not long additions. Once the covering stops, the bids disappear.
The order book is also leaking on the downside: aggressive sell volume in futures is 2.4 times buy volume, and the 20-level sell wall at 2,538 contracts is pressing against 2,236 contracts on the bid side; funding rates have gone back to zero and are sitting below the 8-period average. Even with the price near the highs, no longs are willing to pay a premium.
So I’m not betting on a breakout; I’m betting on a pullback. The short-covering move should run out of steam at 95.97, and below that, I’ll first watch whether 94 can hold. If open interest shifts from shrinking to expanding, aggressive buying overtakes selling, and funding turns positive and holds above the new high, then that would be a real breakout — and I’d turn bullish immediately. #intc $INTC
