US Treasury yields press back toward 4.8% again. The Nasdaq opens lower, and BTC goes chasing longs—only to get hurt first.
As of 20:00, the latest $BTC has closed its 4H candle: it opened at 78632.37, reached a high of only 78658.01, a low of 77758.69, and finally closed at 78098.97—falling below 78189.93 on the body. Trading volume was 2652 BTC, up 11.9% versus the average of the previous 5 candles and up 50.3% versus the previous 20; active buys accounted for 57.2%. Even with buyers dominating prints, they still couldn’t pull the close back. This suggests that near 78189, the support was consumed under the pressure of active selling. In the same period, $ETH closed at 2459.18, while ETH/BTC moved from 0.03144 to 0.03150. Flows didn’t give BTC relative strength. Trapped are those who previously treated ETF inflows as a talisman—and those trying to抢反弹 (buy the rebound) above 78189.
The only relevant catalyst is the cash market in US equities absorbing global bond selling: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.79%, higher than about 4.73% last Friday. The US dollar index is around 99.63, stronger versus the previous close of 99.43. The Nasdaq opened at about 26035 points; compared with the prior close of 26370.89, it opened lower by roughly 1.27%, and at 21:34 it was still hovering around 26015. With yields, the dollar, and technology stocks all squeezing risk appetite at the same time, BTC fell from 77888.39 to about 77832 (around the time before the release) during the 21:30 opening liquidity.
I am explicitly bearish on BTC: first target 77675.04, second target 77392. A 4H close only confirms the timing; it does not assume responsibility for flipping direction. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #US stock market open
The comment section bets on only one thing: will 77675.04 be reached first, or will the Nasdaq first fill the opening gap?
The only invalidation condition: if $BTC ’s 4H candle body closes and stands above 78658.01.
As of 20:00, the latest $BTC has closed its 4H candle: it opened at 78632.37, reached a high of only 78658.01, a low of 77758.69, and finally closed at 78098.97—falling below 78189.93 on the body. Trading volume was 2652 BTC, up 11.9% versus the average of the previous 5 candles and up 50.3% versus the previous 20; active buys accounted for 57.2%. Even with buyers dominating prints, they still couldn’t pull the close back. This suggests that near 78189, the support was consumed under the pressure of active selling. In the same period, $ETH closed at 2459.18, while ETH/BTC moved from 0.03144 to 0.03150. Flows didn’t give BTC relative strength. Trapped are those who previously treated ETF inflows as a talisman—and those trying to抢反弹 (buy the rebound) above 78189.
The only relevant catalyst is the cash market in US equities absorbing global bond selling: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.79%, higher than about 4.73% last Friday. The US dollar index is around 99.63, stronger versus the previous close of 99.43. The Nasdaq opened at about 26035 points; compared with the prior close of 26370.89, it opened lower by roughly 1.27%, and at 21:34 it was still hovering around 26015. With yields, the dollar, and technology stocks all squeezing risk appetite at the same time, BTC fell from 77888.39 to about 77832 (around the time before the release) during the 21:30 opening liquidity.
I am explicitly bearish on BTC: first target 77675.04, second target 77392. A 4H close only confirms the timing; it does not assume responsibility for flipping direction. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #US stock market open
The comment section bets on only one thing: will 77675.04 be reached first, or will the Nasdaq first fill the opening gap?
The only invalidation condition: if $BTC ’s 4H candle body closes and stands above 78658.01.