$USOIL rejected at the 20-week MA again — bearish reversal but recovered off the weekly low. If we get a decisive close above that MA, next upside target is the upper Bollinger Band sitting above $100.
This is classic mid-cycle behavior: testing resistance, getting pushed back, but not collapsing. The fact it held off the lows matters. If oil breaks that 20-week, it's a rotation signal — energy starts working, inflation narrative heats back up, and risk-on alts might catch a bid alongside commodities.
Right now, watching for the break or another rejection. A move through $100 would confirm the trend shift and likely pull energy-related plays higher. Until then, it's a range — respect the levels, don't chase the bounce.
This is classic mid-cycle behavior: testing resistance, getting pushed back, but not collapsing. The fact it held off the lows matters. If oil breaks that 20-week, it's a rotation signal — energy starts working, inflation narrative heats back up, and risk-on alts might catch a bid alongside commodities.
Right now, watching for the break or another rejection. A move through $100 would confirm the trend shift and likely pull energy-related plays higher. Until then, it's a range — respect the levels, don't chase the bounce.
