$BTC smashed 79,070 before the NASDAQ opened lower, and the 80k “catching the bottom” crowd kept buying—paying the price.
At 20:00, the 4H candle had closed. It opened at 79,660, peaked at 79,840, bottomed at 79,001.01, and closed at 79,604.13. Previously, the two prior candles also closed at 79,810.49 and 79,660, with three consecutive real bodies pressing below 80,000. The latest candle’s trading volume was 2,011 BTC—33.1% lower than the average of the prior 5 candles, and 34.7% lower than the prior 20 candles. Active buying accounted for 47.8%. Volume contraction while still failing to reclaim direction indicates there isn’t enough spot demand below 80k to complete a reclaim. Any new K-line that hasn’t closed yet does not participate in a directional reversal.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose from 99.159 at the prior close to 99.215. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.672% to 4.684%. At 21:30, the NASDAQ opened from 26,515.89; the first minute closed at 26,536.12, below the prior close of 26,541.35, and then slid to 26,510.78. $BTC probed 79,070 first at 21:27; in the first minute after the open it only recovered from 79,199.21 to 79,200. $ETH during the same period moved from 2,498.89 to 2,500. U.S. stock market liquidity only produced a weak rebound—trapped are the longs who treated the NASDAQ’s open as a rescue signal.
The only relevant catalyst is the opening of the U.S. stock cash session at 21:30: the dollar and yields were both above the prior close, the NASDAQ failed to open higher, and $BTC also refused to follow the upswing. At 21:34 before publication, $BTC was around $79,310.75 and $ETH around $2,502.42. I’m clearly bearish on $BTC : first target 79,001, second target 78,546; any rebound below 80,000 should be handled as a pressure test. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #US stock market open
In the comments, place a bet on one path: will 79,001 break first, or will the NASDAQ pull back to yesterday’s close first and keep BTC supported?
Only invalidation condition: $BTC ’s 4H real body closes back above 80,000.
At 20:00, the 4H candle had closed. It opened at 79,660, peaked at 79,840, bottomed at 79,001.01, and closed at 79,604.13. Previously, the two prior candles also closed at 79,810.49 and 79,660, with three consecutive real bodies pressing below 80,000. The latest candle’s trading volume was 2,011 BTC—33.1% lower than the average of the prior 5 candles, and 34.7% lower than the prior 20 candles. Active buying accounted for 47.8%. Volume contraction while still failing to reclaim direction indicates there isn’t enough spot demand below 80k to complete a reclaim. Any new K-line that hasn’t closed yet does not participate in a directional reversal.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose from 99.159 at the prior close to 99.215. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 4.672% to 4.684%. At 21:30, the NASDAQ opened from 26,515.89; the first minute closed at 26,536.12, below the prior close of 26,541.35, and then slid to 26,510.78. $BTC probed 79,070 first at 21:27; in the first minute after the open it only recovered from 79,199.21 to 79,200. $ETH during the same period moved from 2,498.89 to 2,500. U.S. stock market liquidity only produced a weak rebound—trapped are the longs who treated the NASDAQ’s open as a rescue signal.
The only relevant catalyst is the opening of the U.S. stock cash session at 21:30: the dollar and yields were both above the prior close, the NASDAQ failed to open higher, and $BTC also refused to follow the upswing. At 21:34 before publication, $BTC was around $79,310.75 and $ETH around $2,502.42. I’m clearly bearish on $BTC : first target 79,001, second target 78,546; any rebound below 80,000 should be handled as a pressure test. This is only market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #US stock market open
In the comments, place a bet on one path: will 79,001 break first, or will the NASDAQ pull back to yesterday’s close first and keep BTC supported?
Only invalidation condition: $BTC ’s 4H real body closes back above 80,000.