Title: Bitcoin Moves Forward Amid the Macro Storm and an Understated Capital Inflow
Last week, the crypto market really was a hard-to-digest “mixed hotpot,” but in the end, $BTC came the unexpected breakout. While many people were still trying to figure out direction, Bitcoin quietly touched the $77,282.00 level, drawing a tall green candle on the weekly chart. Looking at this candle, I bet a lot of “experts” who were chasing last month’s top are only now daring to lift their heads. The real question is: where did this surge come from in a macro picture still full of haze? Big money doesn’t talk much—they just act. And their actions last week show that there are stories the crowd doesn’t talk about, but they’re strong catalysts.
Talk about what’s right and wrong, I also have to be honest about my track record over the past 7 days: 4 winning bets, 3 losing bets, with an accuracy rate of 57.1% across 7 results that have already come in. The market is harsh like that— even the most experienced traders can’t be absolutely correct all the time. What matters is risk management and never being stubborn about a single scenario. A lot of people keep “holding through” losses; only when volatility dries up do they finally cut— that’s basically suicide. What’s great about this market is that it always has surprises, and “smart money” moves around in ways the crowd usually only notices after everything is already done. A clear example is that Bitcoin ETF funds have still been silently net-buying hundreds of millions of USD every week— even reaching $853 million in one week, the highest since April. This shows that institutional buying power is still very strong; they’re accumulating during a period when many retail investors are still doubtful.
Looking at last week’s market breadth with 63/100 coins green, it looks like the market is “choppy,” but in reality, the flow of capital is splitting extremely strongly. The leading names like TUT (+52.57%), ZRO (+21.88%), SC (+19.00%), or PUMP (+17.35%) have demonstrated clear outperformance. What’s noteworthy is that ZRO surged hard even though there was a significant token unlock event. This is a clear signal that smart money isn’t afraid to “buy the dip” when token-release events happen— showing confidence in the project’s future. Meanwhile, Layer 1 narratives are still sizzling. Solana, with the Agave v4.2 and Alpenglow upgrades, promises to reduce transaction processing time and costs, pulling investor attention toward this ecosystem. Ethereum is also preparing for “Glamsterdam”— even if there’s a bit of delay, it’s still an important milestone for strengthening scalability. PUMP, a project in the Solana ecosystem, also benefits as the Solana memecoin narrative is back in the spotlight. Real World Assets (RWA) is another bright spot, as the total on-chain RWA market cap hits a new peak. On the flip side, the names left behind like ACE, BICO, TRUMP, or PLUME show that not every coin gets favored by the capital flow. TRUMP may be impacted by sell pressure from continuous token unlocks.
So what scenario is in store for next week, when $BTC there’s already been a strong pump and it’s sitting around $77,282?
1. **Sideways and consolidation scenario:** After a strong rally, Bitcoin might trade sideways to consolidate around the current price range, roughly $76,000–$78,000. It’s likely to retest key support levels such as the weekly MA7 (around $66,000) or the weekly MA25 (around $69,000) if profit-taking pressure builds. The altcoin market will continue to diverge, with money rotating into narratives that are clearly defined (L1, AI, RWA) and projects with specific catalysts.
2. **Breakout-continuation scenario:** If ETF capital flow continues to sustain strong buying momentum, along with unexpectedly positive macro news (e.g., the Fed signaling an early easing of monetary policy than expected) or legal developments in the US (such as the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), Bitcoin could continue breaking through resistance at $79,500 to target the next major resistance level— the 1W Macro Trend line— around $89,000–$90,000.
3. **Deep correction scenario:** Even though buying momentum is strong, we can’t ignore macro risks like stubborn inflation, high oil prices, and the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” possibility. If these concerns materialize, or if sell pressure ramps up from large token unlock events and triggers a domino effect across altcoins, Bitcoin could see a correction back to the support zone at $69,000—or even $66,000. The $63,000–$65,000 area used to be an important support zone and could be retested if sell pressure is strong.
In the end, no matter who says what, the market will still move in its own way. But my view right now is that the hidden buying power from institutions, along with platform upgrades, is creating a more solid foundation for BTC. However, don’t let that cause FOMO— always allocate capital and watch clear checkpoints. Guys, do you think $BTC will point toward where next week— $90,000, or back to $60,000? Comment with your reasons.
#Write2Earn #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement
(DYOR & NFA)
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🌐 EN: Bitcoin unexpectedly surged past $77,000 this week, driven by sustained institutional ETF inflows despite a “chop” market and lingering macro uncertainties. My stance leans cautiously bullish, acknowledging the strong underlying demand and significant Layer 1 upgrades (Solana, Ethereum) as key catalysts. We could see $BTC retest the $79,500 resistance, with a stretch target around $90,000, though vigilance at supports like $69,000 and $66,000 is crucial due to macro risks.