Just looking at SPCX again today—the price is back around $139.
In the past 24 hours it once touched above $144, then fell back; over the past week it’s still up by about 8%. If you stretch the timeline a bit more: it dropped to a low of $105 on August 3, and has since bounced back by roughly 30% from the low.
This chart looks really thrilling.
Two months ago it hit a peak of $225, then kept getting smashed down to $105; when everyone thought it would keep falling, it suddenly pulled back to around $140.
So seeing people start shouting “back to 200” now doesn’t surprise me at all.
What crypto and U.S. stocks are best at is this: when the price rises, everyone immediately starts inventing reasons for why it’s going up.
But I think, for now, SPCX is more like it crawled out of panic—it still can’t be directly defined as a new major upswing.
Earlier on, the market was most worried about two things.
One is the company’s first earnings report after SpaceX’s listing. Although quarterly revenue reached $7.8 billion, up more than 90% year over year, and losses were smaller than market expectations, the company’s spending on AI, R&D, and infrastructure is very heavy. The market worries that its speed of making money won’t keep up with the speed at which it burns cash.
Another is the unlock of restricted shares.
More than 900 million shares entered the tradable range. Everyone originally expected internal shareholders to dump shares, but on the unlock day the stock price actually rose by 6.1%.
This reaction is quite interesting.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the fundamentals suddenly became perfect. More likely, it means the market had already priced in the negative impact from the unlock too aggressively. Once the real supply actually comes out, the selling pressure isn’t as fierce as people imagined. Instead, short-covering and dip-buying capital end up lifting the price.
So from $105 to $139, I’d rather interpret it as:
The most pessimistic expectations are being corrected.
But correcting pessimism doesn’t automatically prove optimism.
Now SPCX still has a few very real issues.
First, it’s still down nearly 40% from its historical high near $225. It looks like a big rebound, but in reality it has only recovered part of the earlier decline.
Second, in the past 24 hours, on-chain trading volume has already fallen by about 40% compared with the previous day. The price has been consolidating at high levels, but trading enthusiasm is starting to cool down—suggesting that moving higher will require a fresh round of capital to take the baton.
Again, around August 20, there may be new restricted shares entering the market. The last round of unlocks didn’t crush the price downward, which doesn’t mean the supply pressure from later on will automatically disappear.
There’s another often-ignored problem:
The SPCX mentioned here refers to the tokenized SpaceX stock issued by Backpack on Solana—each token represents the economic rights to one real share. It isn’t a typical meme/altcoin, but it also isn’t entirely free of additional risks.
It can be traded on-chain 24 hours a day, but U.S. stocks aren’t continuously open for trading 24 hours. When sentiment is intense on weekends or after-hours, on-chain prices may temporarily deviate from stock prices. Also, on-chain liquidity isn’t as deep as traditional U.S. equities, so the actual trade prices for chasing rallies and stop-losses may differ from the quotes you see on the screen.
So when I look at SPCX now, what I care about most isn’t whether it can jump to $150 tomorrow, but three simpler things:
Can the $135 IPO offer price truly hold steady?
After the next round of unlocks, can the additional shares be absorbed by the market as well?
Whether SpaceX’s subsequent revenue growth can gradually cover its ever-expanding capital expenditures.
If these three things gradually play out, $139 may only be the beginning of a fresh repricing.
If trading volume keeps shrinking and the selling pressure from unlocks comes back, this recent rally may just be another sharp oversold rebound.
At the end of the day, what makes SPCX so addictive is that it contains three stories at the same time:
SpaceX, Musk, and tokenization of U.S. equities.
With the three stories layered together, the imagination space is certainly huge—and volatility is destined not to be small either.
Right now, my feeling is:
When it was $105, nobody dared to look; when it reached $139, people started to fear missing out again.
The market will never give people a price that is both cheap, safe, and certain.
But the more it’s like this, the more we should first sort it out—are you buying SpaceX’s long-term value, or are you buying this recent green-turning candlestick?$SPCX #spcx今日走势分析