The most unusual thing is that a Bitcoin ETF is about to be shut down—and $BTC didn’t even get a decent follow-through.
When I saw this headline on the subway, I first checked the price, and $BTC was still hovering around 63794.
Hashdex’s little ETF has been tinkering for more than two years, net assets have never exceeded $18 million, and now it’s preparing to sell its 225 units of $BTC to get its money back.
Sounds like a negative, right?
But today’s range is between 62300 and 63992. The pullback in the middle has been pretty smooth, and it’s also still up 1.09% over the past 24 hours.
Later I watched the volume for ten minutes: spot volume was 913 million, and futures volume was 9.187 billion—about 10.1x.
This suggests that the ones truly grabbing the steering wheel right now are still the futures side. ETF volume is so small compared with the current $BTC float that it’s like pouring a bottle of spring water into a swimming pool.
There’s another detail I care about: the funding rate is only +0.0022%.
The bulls aren’t without sentiment—it's just not hot enough yet. And the open interest of 108428 units of $BTC also shows that the market’s chips haven’t turned into a messy pile.
In the past, I’d always love to “fantasize” about this kind of “ETF shuts down” news as a chain of bad signals, and I’d move too fast to short it—only to get yanked around back and forth several times afterward.
This time, I don’t want to play the old script.
I admit I might have missed a bit: in the days when those 225 units were actually dumped, if the market just happened to meet a cold mood in U.S. equities, then the short-term could feel rough.
But judging just from this news itself, I’m inclined to see it as the exit of an “orphaned product with no takers,” not a withdrawal by big capital.
If it were me, I wouldn’t short $BTC over this. If I did act, I’d only wait for it to come back around 62300 and see whether the support is still there.
Don’t cue me if it loses—if it profits, treat me to a cup of coffee.
$BTC #BTC走势分析 #ETF动态
When I saw this headline on the subway, I first checked the price, and $BTC was still hovering around 63794.
Hashdex’s little ETF has been tinkering for more than two years, net assets have never exceeded $18 million, and now it’s preparing to sell its 225 units of $BTC to get its money back.
Sounds like a negative, right?
But today’s range is between 62300 and 63992. The pullback in the middle has been pretty smooth, and it’s also still up 1.09% over the past 24 hours.
Later I watched the volume for ten minutes: spot volume was 913 million, and futures volume was 9.187 billion—about 10.1x.
This suggests that the ones truly grabbing the steering wheel right now are still the futures side. ETF volume is so small compared with the current $BTC float that it’s like pouring a bottle of spring water into a swimming pool.
There’s another detail I care about: the funding rate is only +0.0022%.
The bulls aren’t without sentiment—it's just not hot enough yet. And the open interest of 108428 units of $BTC also shows that the market’s chips haven’t turned into a messy pile.
In the past, I’d always love to “fantasize” about this kind of “ETF shuts down” news as a chain of bad signals, and I’d move too fast to short it—only to get yanked around back and forth several times afterward.
This time, I don’t want to play the old script.
I admit I might have missed a bit: in the days when those 225 units were actually dumped, if the market just happened to meet a cold mood in U.S. equities, then the short-term could feel rough.
But judging just from this news itself, I’m inclined to see it as the exit of an “orphaned product with no takers,” not a withdrawal by big capital.
If it were me, I wouldn’t short $BTC over this. If I did act, I’d only wait for it to come back around 62300 and see whether the support is still there.
Don’t cue me if it loses—if it profits, treat me to a cup of coffee.
$BTC #BTC走势分析 #ETF动态