The square is still using the “1-hour RSI drops to 4.7” to persuade people to go bottom-fishing. RIF has already jumped from 0.04381 to 0.0848, and the cheapest chunk has been sold off early.
Now it gets more troublesome: perpetuals are still about 3% lower than spot, with funding rates around -0.36%; yet the number of 12-hour real contract positions is actually down nearly 20%. This rebound looks more like old short-sellers exiting and pushing the price up, not new longs taking over at the low end.
I’m not taking this rebound—I'll wait and see over the next 2 to 6 hours. A 15-minute surge that closes below 0.074 will likely keep giving back; only if the 1-hour chart regains 0.0848 and the spot–perpetual price spread tightens to within 0.5%, will I admit it has shifted from a squeeze to fresh buy-side demand.
$RIF #contract fund structure
Now it gets more troublesome: perpetuals are still about 3% lower than spot, with funding rates around -0.36%; yet the number of 12-hour real contract positions is actually down nearly 20%. This rebound looks more like old short-sellers exiting and pushing the price up, not new longs taking over at the low end.
I’m not taking this rebound—I'll wait and see over the next 2 to 6 hours. A 15-minute surge that closes below 0.074 will likely keep giving back; only if the 1-hour chart regains 0.0848 and the spot–perpetual price spread tightens to within 0.5%, will I admit it has shifted from a squeeze to fresh buy-side demand.
$RIF #contract fund structure