AI main theme cools down completely; people are stunned—no need to worry 🥹😭
Today the AI main theme has clearly entered a broad pullback and a high-volatility phase, with a concentrated deleveraging stage especially in the hardware supply-chain sector.
Funds continue to avoid storage, compute power leasing, optical communications, and chip design, shifting instead toward relatively stable directions such as large tech platforms, AI software, and network security.
▶️1｜Key watchlist: the downturn is driven by high-volatility segments
Core targets are generally under pressure. NVDA, TSM, and ASML are down roughly 1% to 2%, still relatively resilient—although TSMC and ASML both have exceptionally strong earnings support, they are still inevitably under pressure;
What truly drags the main trend down are high-volatility names: DRAM and MRVL fell nearly 9% in a single day, and CRWV fell another 5.46%.
Worth noting is that although CRWD and AMZN pulled back on the day, their 5-day and 1-month trends are still relatively stable. This reflects that funds have been consistently sheltering in comparatively safer places—not moving from high-volatility hardware to software and platform companies with higher earnings visibility.
▶️2｜Sector overview: There is no truly strong sector—only relative resilience
All 12 AI-related sectors recorded negative returns, but the declines varied significantly.
Buy-side sectors in AI software, network security, and the Mag7 cloud segment saw average declines of about 1%, becoming today’s relative safe havens. AI power, semiconductor equipment, and core ETFs fell about 3% to 4%.
Weakness is concentrated in NeoCloud, storage, and optical communications: NeoCloud is down an average of 8.96%, storage HBM is down 8.77%. This shows the market is still reducing exposure to companies with high capital expenditures, rich valuations, and heavy financing needs.
▶️3｜High levels and deep pullbacks: Market divergence has become extremely pronounced
AAPL is the only stock in the watchlist that closed at a new all-time high; PANW, NET, CRWD, and FTNT are less than 5% away from their all-time highs. Near all top-performing assets have been dominated by large consumer-tech and network security conglomerates.
On the other side, stocks like SMCI, ORCL, CRWV, and IREN saw especially large declines. This reflects that many previously popular AI themes have moved past a normal correction and entered a phase of repricing valuations and positioning.
▶️4｜Momentum tracking: Cybersecurity is the strongest, while computing leasing is the weakest
The relative strength ranking is still led by PANW, CRWD, AAPL, NET, META, and ZS. Among them, PANW and CRWD have significantly outperformed the QQQ over the past month. Cybersecurity remains the most complete trend sector within the current AI mainline.
Weak momentum is concentrated in IREN, APLD, CRWV, and ARM. CRWV and IREN have both fallen for six straight trading days, and ARM has also been down for five straight days, indicating the market has not yet shown clear signs of a bottoming out or a return of funds.
▶️5｜Relatively strong areas: Software and Mag7 maintain buyer support
In AI software, CRM rose 3.40% against the trend, and PLTR has been up for four straight days. This suggests that capital is still willing to trade application-layer companies with revenue growth and commercialization expectations.
Among the Mag7, AAPL and MSFT rose 1.76% and 1.38%, respectively. Large tech platforms continue to play a stabilizing role for the index.
Although the network security sector was slightly down overall that day, PANW, NET, and ZS had limited declines. Over the past month they have still clearly outperformed the broader market, and for now they remain a normal consolidation within a strong trend.
▶️6｜Weak areas: Storage and NeoCloud are still looking for a bottom
NeoCloud is once again at the core of the selloff. NBIS fell 13.90%, while IREN and APLD dropped by nearly 9%. Over the past month, the cumulative declines of multiple stocks have already exceeded 35%. The market is re-evaluating their financing costs, debt pressure, and capital-expenditure returns.
The storage sector also faced heavy selling pressure: SKHY fell 13.69%, SNDK fell 12.63%, and STX fell 10%. Current price action suggests that market focus has shifted away from the long-term HBM supply-and-demand story and toward whether the earlier rally gains, crowded positioning, and short-term earnings expectations can be realized.
Optical communications, AI servers, and chip design also have not seen any follow-through. ALAB, CRDO, SMCI, and MRVL have all significantly underperformed the QQQ; in the short term, they remain weak areas where rebounds are likely to hit resistance.
The market has been extremely harsh. Calling it a localized stock disaster isn’t an exaggeration—but the more extreme the market, the more you must avoid making the most aggressive decision when emotions are at their worst.
In the short term, prices are often amplified by positioning, leverage, and panic—and that doesn’t mean every industry narrative disappears overnight. Just like during the hot炒 period in June before, when stocks were surging day after day by more than ten points or even twenty-plus points.
As long as we are not dealing with high leverage right now and there isn’t short-term funding pressure, the holding logic has not been completely overturned by fundamentals—so there is still room to slowly rebalance and wait for the market to return to rationality. This period may be uncomfortable, but by preserving cash first, controlling risk, and not being forced to exit, you still have a chance to get through this most difficult market together.
But next time, I don’t want to go through all of this again!
