Family members, first pay attention—don’t get lost! I’m J.K. Cong, the one who’s always sifting for sugar in glass shards for you all.
Recently, this market’s all about “a dull knife cutting for losses,” shaking everyone so hard they barely have the energy to keep checking the charts. Just when everyone was ready to lie flat and become salted fish, beneath the surface, strong undercurrents were already surging. The Fed has changed hands, Wall Street turned against the grain, and even within Bitcoin they started doing “coup-style infighting”…
This episode features up to 7,000 Chinese characters of top-tier insider intel. J.K. Cong spent the whole night helping everyone dehydrate and refine it. In 15 minutes, hardcore, brain-burning content—3 minutes and it’s directly fed into your mouth! If you feel you gained something after watching, smash like and share. Bosses with real skills are welcome to tip—there’s also the wealth code for joining the fan group at the end. Get ready to board the wealth train—fasten your seatbelt!
I. The macro “living butcher” is on the scene: is Wosh’s debut delivering sweets or serving poison?
Everyone, pay attention: the Fed’s power baton has been passed! The new official, Wosh (Wash), has arrived for his “big test” within his term. Now the whole market is watching him: will he keep hiking rates to drain liquidity from the market, or will he back down and observe?
On top of that, the Middle East and Iran-U.S. tensions are escalating again. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations get pulled up too. This week directly enters a “super-macro week”:
This week’s dimension-reducing strike package: core CPI data + two congressional hearings led by Wosh + the Beige Book + retail data.
J.K. Cong’s take: With three fires at the start, the new official Wosh is also riding a tiger. If the CPI data comes in scorching hot, to establish authority he will most likely channel his inner “Eagle King” and issue tough words. Keep your hands off for the next few days—don’t blindly open high-leverage positions. Be careful: macro data could stick in a pin and send you packing instantly.
II. Stablecoins are playing out a “big retreat,” but someone is疯狂吸金 (疯狂 pocketing money) against the trend!
Many people say you can tell whether it’s bull or bear by looking at candlestick charts. J.K. Cong tells you: to judge bull/bear, you have to look at liquidity (whether the money is still there).
In June, the total market value of global stablecoins evaporated by $7.7 billion! This is the largest single-month pullback since the Terra (LUNA) crash. But! Something strange happened: even though the money is shrinking, it isn’t distributed evenly:
Ethereum ecosystem: liquidity has been brutally washed out, and funds are fleeing in a frenzy.
Tron (Tron) ecosystem: Brother Sun’s USDT on the Tron chain actually set a new all-time high against the trend!
J.K. Cong’s take: While Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and other Wall Street “BTC faces” are still throwing out their promises and forecasts that stablecoins will reach $1.9 trillion by 2030, far-away solutions can’t quench near-term needs. The reality right now is this: capital is concentrating into the top-tier, high-efficiency traditional payment networks (for example, Tron). What opportunities are hiding in that? See the coin recommendations below.
III. ETFs end eight consecutive weeks of outflows—was it “real deposits,” or just a case of the lights flickering before they go out?
Last week, the BTC spot ETF finally brought some good news: BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined for net inflows of $281.8 million. At last, it plugged the hole from eight straight weeks of bleeding.
But J.K. Cong has already done the math for you: this rebound only recaptured 2.4% of the previously lost funds! 2.4%, folks—this is like you lose 100 and the market maker throws you 2.4 back. How could you possibly shout, “Bull run, come back fast”? The real question is: has the institutions’ genuine demand actually reversed? It still leaves a big, huge question mark.
IV. The on-chain truth-revealing mirror: $70,700 has become the “first love” nobody can get past
Let’s look at a set of on-chain data that hits hard. STH (short-term holders) cost basis is currently around $70,700. This level has been pressing BTC hard for more than 9 months! Once the price touches it, the short-term dip-buying and cost-escape positions will start疯狂砸盘 (crashing the sell-off) like crazy.
Meanwhile, due to the coin price’s long-term slump, BTC mining difficulty has been cut by 5%. What does that mean? It means some “marginal miners” who can’t bear the costs have already powered down—or even sold with losses and exited.
V. Institutional treasuries: saying is one thing, doing is another. Has even the “big-name, big-light” been shaken?
Right now, the treasuries of all major listed companies are sitting on a total of 1.14 million BTC. Sounds scary, right? But take a closer look at the data: starting from May this year, their buying/increase actions have basically come to a near standstill.
More ominously, a Strategy (strategy firm) on the market that claims to have “unwavering faith” was the first to initiate some asset sales. This isn’t a good sign. If other institutions follow suit, then this becomes the sword of Damocles hanging over the bulls’ heads.
VI. The BIP-110 palace drama: consensus isn’t a courtroom—Saylor teams up with Back to blow things up!
Recently, the Bitcoin community has been thrown into chaos because of the BIP-110 upgrade. Supporters see it as innovation, but in the BTC circle, the traditional guardians—MicroStrategy’s Saylor and Blockstream’s Adam Back—stepped forward and launched a direct attack, strongly opposing it!
As of now, the support rate for this proposal from miners is still below 1%.
J.K. Cong’s concise explainer: The essence of BIP-110 is to forcibly introduce moral constraints and penalty mechanisms into an absolutely secure system that should prioritize complete decentralization and non-production. It’s like building a bar in a monastery that practices strict abstinence—of course the old abbot (Saylor and Back) wouldn’t come out quietly without flipping the table. As of now, the risk of a fork is still there, but most likely it will be strangled in its crib.
VII. AI + Crypto: Kraken sparks a new round of internal competition; the industry’s scale is already double the bottom level of the last cycle!
Finally, a piece of exciting news: the old-school exchange Kraken has already launched AI intelligent agent trading. In the future, it might be your AI robot fighting other people’s AI robots, and then cutting each other’s flesh. Also, 27 big giants have formed an “internet court”—the industry is moving toward standardization.
In Bitwise’s Q2 report, there’s a line that best reassures people: the overall size of the crypto industry is now already double the bottom level of the last cycle. The industry isn’t dead—it’s just undergoing a reshuffle.
VIII. J.K. Cong’s trading strategies and wealth password
To sum it up: the current market is a classic stage of macro pressure crushing things, a battle among limited supply, and the main forces laying the foundation. Since it’s bottom-fishing, the process will definitely be extremely nauseating.
Based on the above internal-reference analysis, J.K. Cong offers a clear trading recommendation for everyone at this stage:
For the sector track: core logic—recommended coins and execution strategies. Focus on: Defensive blue-chip ETFs as funds flow back; during the bottoming phase, defense is the top choice: BTC / ETH. Avoid futures; DCA into spot in batches; hold fast until a breakout at $70,700. Stablecoins / established chains: USDT on-chain hits a new high against the trend; deep liquidity moat. TRX (TRON): Brother Sun’s traffic and TRON’s deflation are extremely resilient and hard to shake—suitable for defense. AI + Web3: Kraken and other major firms are pushing aggressively; this is definitely the main storyline in the second half. RNDR / FET / NEAR: buy in batches on big dips. As long as the AI wave keeps rolling, the sector will be repeatedly traded and rotated.
Fan benefits and tipping channel
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