The North American World Cup knockout stage, expanded to 48 teams this cycle across the USA, Canada, and Mexico, is also crazily eliminating strong sides like cutting wheatgrass.
I feel the situation now is like a high-risk, knockoff-coin sector right after it just opened trading: old beliefs are collapsing, and a new batch of dark-horse challengers is growing aggressively. Look at yesterday’s match stats—top title contender Germany drew Paraguay 1-1, then were sent packing by a 3-4 penalty shootout; the Netherlands also played Morocco to a 2-2 draw, and lost 2-3 in penalties, going out immediately. This tells us a simple lesson: in this bloated 48-team format, the error margin for traditional powerhouses is painfully low. Other than France and Argentina, most major teams have been performing rather inconsistently.
I can also see it pretty directly from the World Cup event meme trend in Binance Wallet. It gives me strong reference value for betting on each match this year. As for the champion, based on these performances and the stable upward trend of the Binance event meme, France is basically beyond doubt—whether defensively or in possession-based control, they’re in a class of their own. The only slight drawback is that their midfield has a bit of a flaw.
For runner-up, I think it should be Argentina. Although Argentina won the title last year and did defend successfully, the group stage exposed their difficulties in breaking down stubborn defenses. I think Messi-dependence is pretty obvious: in the key match against Saudi Arabia, they almost got held to a draw, and I’m quite doubtful about their ability to withstand defensive pressure in the knockout rounds.
For third place, it should be Spain. Spain’s possession-control dominance is also quite strong—about 75% average possession per game. But their efficiency in breaking through seems to fluctuate a lot. Against Cabo Verde, they almost dropped points. Their young roster still needs to be tested in hard-fought matches.
And then there’s England. Their attack and defense seem fairly balanced, but their overall psychological resilience after conceding goals apparently has some issues—against Congo, they nearly went home early too. Still, Uncle Kane’s quality is very strong, and they have a real chance to fight for either second or third place.
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