Responding to a friend's question: At the end of the year, should I cash out for the New Year, or keep my investment at @CZ 's $USD1 with a 20% annual return.

This question actually needs to be broken down:

I have USD, and if RMB continues to appreciate, is now the time to exchange?

If priced in RMB, to what extent must the investment in USD reach to offset the depreciation of the dollar against RMB?

Based on this issue, a friend provided insights on the appreciation of the yen that caused a loss of 30 years.

This issue will emerge in a very systematic way, as diodes can easily be misled by marketing hype. Japan's loss of 30 years was due to the appreciation of the yen.

If we define it, it should be seen as the rapid appreciation of the yen not matching Japan's transformation.

Currency appreciation - strong purchasing power - corresponds to a consumption-driven economy.

At that time, Japan, like us, was export-oriented. The appreciation of the yen led to a rapid increase in the value of yen-denominated assets, and the liquidity quickly flowed into the stock market, then from valuation to overseas. Japan's consumption transformation became meaningless.

Currently, RMB is basically within a controllable range. Appreciation equals strong purchasing power. Even with a trade surplus, using produced goods to absorb the surplus purchasing power and forming a transformation to a consumption-driven economy is the healthy approach.

Now that RMB is within a controllable range, what is this year's appreciation price difference?

4%, and next year it's very likely to appreciate within a space of 4%, until the internal circulation starts non-rotation.

In summary: If your investment at the exchange or in financial products cannot exceed 4% annually, it is very difficult to cover the depreciation of your USD.

Currently, under the condition of no trading, Binance's USD1 with such a high annual return is still rare, but the limit is too low at only 50,000, so the wear and tear of USD1/USD is negligible.