This morning I looked over the ETF fund flow data. The streak of ten straight outflows in June was finally broken—Bitwise said the single-day net inflow exceeded $200 million, which is a kind of milestone signal. Combined with last Friday’s rebound of 62,000, the market’s move has held up a bit more sturdily than I expected.

Technically, here’s my own recap: the daily K line has regained the 30-day moving average; the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day moving average, showing early signs of a golden cross. But trading volume hasn’t expanded noticeably yet—this is a setup of “price rebound + volume hesitation.” MACD is about to turn positive while still below the zero line. RSI is hovering around 52, neither overbought nor oversold.

My preferred scenario: over the next 1–2 weeks, it may churn back and forth within the 59,500–64,000 trading range box, and a real breakout will depend on whether there’s supporting data in mid-July—especially FOMC meeting minutes and CPI data. If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls don’t come in unexpectedly weak, then above 62,500 is the short-term threshold that separates strength from weakness.

Purely my personal view, not a soothsayer’s prediction—no investment advice. DYOR.

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